Dobrovce v Rače prediction · 3. SNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

DobrovceDrawRače

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Rače 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rače are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dobrovce 28%, draw 25%, Rače 46%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Dobrovce v RačeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Dobrovce win28%

Draw25%

Rače win46%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 17:00

RoundEast · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dobrovce

Rače

11Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. SNL - East

Last match: 24 Oct · the Slovenian Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Rače	10	+1	13
11	Dobrovce	10	−12	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rače winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Rače a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dobrovce v Rače~~1.19 – 1.59

~~Form · last six in 3. SNL - East this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 13~~11 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dobrovce win	28%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Rače win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Dobrovce or draw	54%	–	–
Dobrovce clean sheet	21%	–	–
Rače clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.8 9.7 7.9 4.2 1 7.2 11.7 9.0 4.8 2 4.4 6.8 5.3 2.8 3 2.8 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dobrovce down, Rače across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 327 3. SNL - East matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. SNL - East matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.1% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 6.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dobrovce at home: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Rače away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Dobrovce, 1.59 for Rače. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~DOB 1–5 RAC · RAC 5–1 DOB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. SNL - East this season · since 11 Sept

DOBROVCE

LWLLWL1–3 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 3–4 · 1–0 · 3–4

RAČE

LDWWDW1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Odranci	10	+18	26
2	Fužinar	10	+10	19
3	NK Ormoz	10	+6	19
4	Šmartno	10	+5	19
5	Hajdina	10	+3	16
6	Čarda Martjanci	10	+5	15
7	Videm	10	−2	14
8	Podvinci	10	−4	14
9	Rače	10	+1	13
10	Korotan Prevalje	10	−1	11
11	Dobrovce	10	−12	9
12	Ljutomer	10	−4	8
13	Limbuš Pekre	10	−13	8
14	Šampion Celje	10	−12	4