Triglav v Dekani prediction · 2. SNL

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 19:31

Triglav 1–0 Dekani TRIGLAV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Triglav win~~69%

~~The market said~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.145

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.118

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Triglav win at 69%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Triglav 69% before kick-off, 70% now. 0–0 · 70–18–11
1′KICK-OFF Triglav v Dekani
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Triglav win: 69% at kick-off, 59% now
39′We said Triglav at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 57%. 0–0 · 57–30–13
45′We said Triglav at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–34–12
45′HALF-TIME Triglav 0–0 Dekani
51′SECOND HALF Triglav 0–0 Dekani
53′We said Triglav at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–39–12
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Triglav win: 69% at kick-off, 49% now
56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 47–41–12
60′We said Triglav at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–45–12
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Triglav win 42%)
65′We said Triglav at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–50–11
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Triglav win: 69% at kick-off, 39% now
70′We said Triglav at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–56–10
74′We said Triglav at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–63–9
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Triglav win: 69% at kick-off, 29% now
75′We said Triglav at 69% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 1–0 · 92–8–0
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Triglav 1–0 Dekani
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Triglav win: 69% at kick-off, 92% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Triglav win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 8%)
77′A goal for Triglav on 75′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 92–7–0
78′We said Triglav at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–70–7 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
82′We said Triglav at 69% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Triglav win: 69% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Triglav 1–0 Dekani
FTTriglav 1–0 Dekani · Triglav win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Triglav are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Triglav 69%, draw 20%, Dekani 11%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Triglav v DekaniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Triglav win69%

Draw20%

Dekani win11%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStanko Mlakar Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Triglav

Dekani

5Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. SNL

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. SNL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Triglav	10	+15	22
9	Dekani	10	+1	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · triglav winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

69% The market72%

Us69%

~~Market~~72%

We make Triglav a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Triglav v Dekani~~2.18 – 0.74

~~Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 4 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 22 v 15~~3 v 9

~~The market · Triglav win~~72% · ours 69%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Triglav win The market, margin stripped

Published at 70%, 69% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Triglav win	69%	72%	−3
Draw	20%	17%	+3
Dekani win	11%	10%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	56%	55%	+1
Both teams to score	47%	42%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	79%	76%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	34%	34%	0
Triglav or draw	89%	90%	−1
Triglav clean sheet	48%	–	–
Dekani clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.6%

0123450 6.3 3.4 1 11.2 9.3 3.2 2 12.6 9.2 3.4 3 9.2 6.7 2.5 4 5.1 3.7 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Triglav down, Dekani across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,280 2. SNL matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Triglav at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Dekani away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.18 goals for Triglav, 0.74 for Dekani. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TRI 2–0 DEK · DEK 3–4 TRI · DEK 1–6 TRI · TRI 1–0 DEK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 4 Sept

TRIGLAV

LWWDWW0–2 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 2–0

DEKANI

DDWWLW0–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tabor Sežana	10	+14	25
2	Beltinci	10	+16	22
3	Triglav	10	+15	22
4	Jesenice	10	+4	17
5	Slovan Ljubljana	10	−2	17
6	Ilirija	10	+6	16
7	Rudar	10	+2	15
8	Bilje	10	−4	15
9	Dekani	10	+1	15
10	Bistrica	10	−2	14
11	Dren Vrhnika	10	−3	14
12	Primorje	10	−5	10
13	Krško	10	−9	9
14	Krka	10	−8	7
15	Dravinja	10	−15	5
16	Brežice	10	−10	3