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Tabor Sežana v Rudar

Tabor Sežana

1–0Full time

Rudar

2. SNL · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 19:02

Tabor Sežana 1–0 Rudar TABOR SEŽANA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tabor Sežana win~~50%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.374

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.351

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tabor Sežana win50%

Draw25%

Rudar win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 16:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tabor sežana winPublished 9 Oct 16:36

50% The market52%

Us50%

~~Market~~52%

We make Tabor Sežana a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tabor sežana win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 60% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tabor Sežana win	50%	52%	−2
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Rudar win	25%	23%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	56%	56%	0
Both teams to score	57%	57%	0
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	34%	36%	−2
Tabor Sežana or draw	75%	77%	−2
Tabor Sežana clean sheet	31%	–	–
Rudar clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.4 5.5 3.7 1 8.6 11.6 6.3 2.5 2 8.2 9.4 5.5 2.2 3 4.8 5.5 3.2 4 2.2 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tabor Sežana down, Rudar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,272 2. SNL matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.9% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tabor Sežana at home: 2.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Rudar away: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Tabor Sežana, 1.18 for Rudar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~TAB 2–0 RUD · RUD 5–1 TAB · RUD 1–2 TAB · TAB 1–1 RUD

Form · last six in 2. SNL

TABOR SEŽANA

WDWLWW1–0 · 0–0 · 5–1 · 1–5 · 1–0 · 2–1

RUDAR

WLWWWL4–1 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 4–3 · 3–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tabor Sežana	9	+13	22
2	Triglav	9	+13	19
3	Beltinci	9	+12	19
4	Jesenice	9	+4	16
5	Slovan Ljubljana	9	−2	16
6	Rudar	9	+3	15
7	Bilje	9	0	15
8	Dren Vrhnika	9	−2	14
9	Ilirija	9	+5	13
10	Bistrica	9	−2	13
11	Dekani	9	0	12
12	Primorje	9	−5	9
13	Krško	9	−7	9
14	Krka	9	−7	7
15	Dravinja	9	−15	4
16	Brežice	9	−10	2