Slovan Ljubljana v Bistrica prediction · 2. SNL

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Slovan Ljubljana 1–1 Bistrica BISTRICA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Bistrica win~~44%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.841

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.853

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bistrica win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Slovan Ljubljana v Bistrica
5′Little has changed for our model: Bistrica 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 31–25–44
8′Little has changed for our model: Bistrica 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 31–26–44
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Slovan Ljubljana 0–1 Bistrica
22′16′ and it is 0–1: Bistrica have scored. 0–1 · 11–19–70
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Bistrica win: 44% at kick-off, 70% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Bistrica win: 44% at kick-off, 44% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Bistrica win: 44% at kick-off, 44% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Bistrica win: 44% at kick-off, 70% now
24′16′ and it is 0–1: Bistrica have scored. 0–1 · 11–19–70
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Bistrica win: 44% at kick-off, 44% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Bistrica win: 44% at kick-off, 70% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Bistrica win: 44% at kick-off, 70% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Bistrica win: 44% at kick-off, 70% now
45′HALF-TIME Slovan Ljubljana 0–1 Bistrica
46′⚽ GOAL · 16' Slovan Ljubljana 0–1 Bistrica
46′SECOND HALF Slovan Ljubljana 0–1 Bistrica
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Slovan Ljubljana 1–1 Bistrica
FTFULL TIME Slovan Ljubljana 1–1 Bistrica
FTSlovan Ljubljana 1–1 Bistrica · Bistrica win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Slovan Ljubljana win31%

Draw26%

Bistrica win44%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Slovan Ljubljana

Bistrica

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Slovan Ljubljana	9	−2	16
11	Bistrica	9	−2	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bistrica winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

44% The market49%

Us44%

~~Market~~49%

We make Bistrica a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bistrica win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slovan Ljubljana win	31%	25%	+5
Draw	26%	26%	0
Bistrica win	44%	49%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	56%	55%	+1
Both teams to score	59%	57%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	76%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	34%	35%	0
Slovan Ljubljana or draw	56%	51%	+5
Slovan Ljubljana clean sheet	20%	–	–
Bistrica clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.2 7.8 6.9 3.8 1 6.2 11.8 8.9 4.9 2.1 2 4.6 7.3 5.8 3.2 3 2.1 3.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Slovan Ljubljana down, Bistrica across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,277 2. SNL matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Slovan Ljubljana at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Bistrica away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Slovan Ljubljana, 1.64 for Bistrica. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BIS 1–0 SLO · SLO 2–0 BIS · BIS 2–1 SLO · SLO 0–2 BIS

Form · last six in 2. SNL

SLOVAN LJUBLJANA

WLDLWW2–1 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 4–1

BISTRICA

WLWLLW2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tabor Sežana	10	+14	25
2	Beltinci	10	+16	22
3	Triglav	9	+13	19
4	Jesenice	10	+4	17
5	Ilirija	10	+6	16
6	Slovan Ljubljana	9	−2	16
7	Rudar	10	+2	15
8	Dekani	10	+1	15
9	Bilje	10	−4	15
10	Dren Vrhnika	10	−3	14
11	Bistrica	9	−2	13
12	Primorje	9	−5	9
13	Krško	9	−7	9
14	Krka	10	−8	7
15	Dravinja	9	−15	4
16	Brežice	10	−10	3