Rudar v Slovan Ljubljana prediction · 2. SNL

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Rudar 2–0 Slovan Ljubljana RUDAR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rudar win~~53%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.338

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.281

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rudar win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Rudar was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–23
1′KICK-OFF Rudar v Slovan Ljubljana
34′Rudar find the net on 34′. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Rudar 1–0 Slovan Ljubljana
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Rudar win: 53% at kick-off, 77% now
35′We published Rudar at 53%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
35′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 77–16–7
37′A goal for Rudar on 36′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
37′We published Rudar at 53%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Rudar 2–0 Slovan Ljubljana
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Rudar win: 53% at kick-off, 94% now
44′We published Rudar at 53%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Rudar 2–0 Slovan Ljubljana
46′SECOND HALF Rudar 2–0 Slovan Ljubljana
82′We published Rudar at 53%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Rudar 2–0 Slovan Ljubljana
FTRudar 2–0 Slovan Ljubljana · Rudar win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rudar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rudar 53%, draw 24%, Slovan Ljubljana 23%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Rudar v Slovan LjubljanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Rudar win53%

Draw24%

Slovan Ljubljana win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueMestni stadion ob jezeru

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rudar

Slovan Ljubljana

8Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · 2. SNL

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. SNL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Slovan Ljubljana	10	−2	17
7	Rudar	10	+2	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rudar winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:27 · locked at kick-off

53% The market57%

Us53%

~~Market~~57%

We make Rudar a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rudar v Slovan Ljubljana~~1.83 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 17~~7 v 5

~~The market · Rudar win~~57% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rudar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rudar win	53%	57%	−4
Draw	24%	23%	+1
Slovan Ljubljana win	23%	20%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	56%	58%	−2
Both teams to score	57%	56%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	79%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	37%	−3
Rudar or draw	77%	80%	−3
Rudar clean sheet	33%	–	–
Slovan Ljubljana clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.2 5.3 3.4 1 8.8 11.3 6.0 2.3 2 8.6 9.5 5.4 2.1 3 5.2 5.8 3.3 4 2.4 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rudar down, Slovan Ljubljana across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,283 2. SNL matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.2% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rudar at home: 2.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Slovan Ljubljana away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Rudar, 1.14 for Slovan Ljubljana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~RUD 4–0 SLO · SLO 0–3 RUD · RUD 0–2 SLO · SLO 1–1 RUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 4 Sept

RUDAR

LWWWLL2–4 · 2–0 · 4–3 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 0–1

SLOVAN LJUBLJANA

LDLWWD0–4 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tabor Sežana	11	+15	28
2	Triglav	11	+16	25
3	Beltinci	10	+16	22
4	Jesenice	11	+3	17
5	Slovan Ljubljana	10	−2	17
6	Ilirija	11	+5	16
7	Rudar	10	+2	15
8	Bilje	10	−4	15
9	Dekani	11	0	15
10	Bistrica	10	−2	14
11	Dren Vrhnika	10	−3	14
12	Primorje	10	−5	10
13	Krško	10	−9	9
14	Dravinja	11	−14	8
15	Krka	10	−8	7
16	Brežice	10	−10	3