Primorje v Rudar prediction · 2. SNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PrimorjeDrawRudar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Primorje 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Primorje are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Primorje 41%, draw 27%, Rudar 32%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Primorje v RudarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Primorje win41%

Draw27%

Rudar win32%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Primorje

Rudar

10Days since last match10

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. SNL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Rudar	11	+4	18
12	Primorje	11	−6	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · primorje winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Primorje a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Primorje v Rudar~~1.44 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 11 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 18~~12 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Primorje win	41%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Rudar win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Primorje or draw	68%	–	–
Primorje clean sheet	29%	–	–
Rudar clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.9 7.8 5.3 2.3 1 9.1 12.7 7.4 3.1 2 7.1 8.5 5.3 2.2 3 3.4 4.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Primorje down, Rudar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,288 2. SNL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.4% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Primorje at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Rudar away: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Primorje, 1.25 for Rudar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~PRI 3–1 RUD · RUD 0–1 PRI · RUD 0–2 PRI · PRI 2–2 RUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 11 Sept

PRIMORJE

LLDDDL2–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

RUDAR

WWWLLW2–0 · 4–3 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tabor Sežana	11	+15	28
2	Beltinci	11	+17	25
3	Triglav	11	+16	25
4	Rudar	11	+4	18
5	Bilje	11	−2	18
6	Jesenice	11	+3	17
7	Bistrica	11	−1	17
8	Slovan Ljubljana	11	−4	17
9	Ilirija	11	+5	16
10	Dekani	11	0	15
11	Dren Vrhnika	11	−4	14
12	Primorje	11	−6	10
13	Krško	11	−10	9
14	Dravinja	11	−14	8
15	Krka	11	−10	7
16	Brežice	11	−9	6