Primorje v Dravinja prediction · 2. SNL

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Primorje 1–1 Dravinja PRIMORJE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Primorje win~~54%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.893

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.015

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Primorje win at 54%.
1′KICK-OFF Primorje v Dravinja
4′Much as we predicted: Primorje was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–24–21
8′Much as we predicted: Primorje was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–25–21
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Primorje win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Primorje win: 54% at kick-off, 45% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Primorje win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Primorje win: 54% at kick-off, 45% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Primorje win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Primorje win: 54% at kick-off, 45% now
45′HALF-TIME Primorje 0–0 Dravinja
46′SECOND HALF Primorje 0–0 Dravinja
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Primorje 1–0 Dravinja
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Primorje 1–1 Dravinja
FTFULL TIME Primorje 1–1 Dravinja
FTPrimorje 1–1 Dravinja · Primorje win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Primorje win54%

Draw25%

Dravinja win21%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Primorje

Dravinja

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Primorje	9	−5	9
15	Dravinja	9	−15	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · primorje winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

54% The market61%

Us54%

~~Market~~61%

We make Primorje a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · primorje win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 62% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Primorje win	54%	61%	−7
Draw	25%	22%	+4
Dravinja win	21%	17%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	51%	59%	−9
Both teams to score	51%	55%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	79%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	39%	−10
Primorje or draw	79%	83%	−3
Primorje clean sheet	38%	–	–
Dravinja clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.8 5.9 3.3 1 10.8 11.8 5.4 2 9.8 9.3 4.6 3 5.7 5.4 2.7 4 2.6 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Primorje down, Dravinja across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,277 2. SNL matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Primorje at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Dravinja away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Primorje, 0.98 for Dravinja. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~DRA 0–0 PRI · PRI 2–1 DRA

Form · last six in 2. SNL

PRIMORJE

WDLLDD3–2 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

DRAVINJA

LDLWLL1–4 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tabor Sežana	10	+14	25
2	Beltinci	10	+16	22
3	Triglav	9	+13	19
4	Jesenice	10	+4	17
5	Ilirija	10	+6	16
6	Slovan Ljubljana	9	−2	16
7	Rudar	10	+2	15
8	Dekani	10	+1	15
9	Bilje	10	−4	15
10	Dren Vrhnika	10	−3	14
11	Bistrica	9	−2	13
12	Primorje	9	−5	9
13	Krško	9	−7	9
14	Krka	10	−8	7
15	Dravinja	9	−15	4
16	Brežice	10	−10	3