Krško v Triglav prediction · 2. SNL

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Krško 0–2 Triglav TRIGLAV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Triglav win~~71%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.128

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.167

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Triglav win at 71%.
1′KICK-OFF Krško v Triglav
4′Little has changed for our model: Triglav 71% before kick-off, 72% now. 0–0 · 11–18–72
7′Little has changed for our model: Triglav 71% before kick-off, 71% now. 0–0 · 11–18–71
39′We said Triglav at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 12–28–59
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Triglav win: 71% at kick-off, 59% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Triglav win: 71% at kick-off, 66% now
40′We said Triglav at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 12–29–59
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Triglav win: 71% at kick-off, 66% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Triglav win: 71% at kick-off, 59% now
45′HALF-TIME Krško 0–0 Triglav
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Triglav win: 71% at kick-off, 59% now
46′SECOND HALF Krško 0–0 Triglav
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Triglav win: 71% at kick-off, 59% now
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Krško 0–1 Triglav
69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Krško 0–2 Triglav
FTFULL TIME Krško 0–2 Triglav
FTKrško 0–2 Triglav · Triglav win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Krško win11%

Draw18%

Triglav win71%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenueStadion Matije Gubca

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Krško

Triglav

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Triglav	9	+13	19
13	Krško	9	−7	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · triglav winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

71% The market67%

Us71%

~~Market~~67%

We make Triglav a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–2.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · triglav win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 66% to 67% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Krško win	11%	13%	−2
Draw	18%	20%	−2
Triglav win	71%	67%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	61%	58%	+2
Both teams to score	49%	51%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	78%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	39%	38%	0
Krško or draw	29%	33%	−4
Krško clean sheet	10%	–	–
Triglav clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.7%

0123450 5.1 9.7 11.7 9.2 5.6 2.81 3.0 8.5 9.0 7.0 4.2 2.12 3.2 3.6 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Krško down, Triglav across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,277 2. SNL matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.83 goals a meeting; 6 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Krško at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Triglav away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.79 goals for Krško, 2.37 for Triglav. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.83

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~TRI 4–0 KRS · KRS 0–4 TRI · KRS 1–2 TRI · TRI 2–2 KRS

Form · last six in 2. SNL

KRŠKO

DLLLWD0–0 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 0–0

TRIGLAV

WLWWDW1–0 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tabor Sežana	10	+14	25
2	Beltinci	10	+16	22
3	Triglav	9	+13	19
4	Jesenice	10	+4	17
5	Ilirija	10	+6	16
6	Slovan Ljubljana	9	−2	16
7	Rudar	10	+2	15
8	Dekani	10	+1	15
9	Bilje	10	−4	15
10	Dren Vrhnika	10	−3	14
11	Bistrica	9	−2	13
12	Primorje	9	−5	9
13	Krško	9	−7	9
14	Krka	10	−8	7
15	Dravinja	9	−15	4
16	Brežice	10	−10	3