Krka v Dren Vrhnika prediction · 2. SNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KrkaDrawDren Vrhnika

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Krka 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Krka just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Krka 38%, draw 29%, Dren Vrhnika 34%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Krka v Dren VrhnikaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Krka win38%

Draw29%

Dren Vrhnika win34%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenuePortoval

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Krka

Dren Vrhnika

10Days since last match9

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. SNL

Last match: 18 Oct · 2. SNL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Dren Vrhnika	11	−4	14
15	Krka	11	−10	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · krka winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Krka a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Krka v Dren Vrhnika~~1.27 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 14~~15 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Krka win	38%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Dren Vrhnika win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Krka or draw	66%	–	–
Krka clean sheet	31%	–	–
Dren Vrhnika clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.6 9.4 6.1 2.5 1 10.0 13.3 7.4 3.0 2 6.9 8.0 4.7 3 3.0 3.5 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Krka down, Dren Vrhnika across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,288 2. SNL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.4% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Krka at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Dren Vrhnika away: 0.40 scored, 1.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Krka, 1.20 for Dren Vrhnika. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 12 Sept

KRKA

WLLLLL1–0 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–2

DREN VRHNIKA

DWLDLL0–0 · 2–1 · 0–5 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tabor Sežana	11	+15	28
2	Beltinci	11	+17	25
3	Triglav	11	+16	25
4	Rudar	11	+4	18
5	Bilje	11	−2	18
6	Jesenice	11	+3	17
7	Bistrica	11	−1	17
8	Slovan Ljubljana	11	−4	17
9	Ilirija	11	+5	16
10	Dekani	11	0	15
11	Dren Vrhnika	11	−4	14
12	Primorje	11	−6	10
13	Krško	11	−10	9
14	Dravinja	11	−14	8
15	Krka	11	−10	7
16	Brežice	11	−9	6