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Jesenice v Brežice

Jesenice

2–2Full time

Brežice

2. SNL · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Jesenice 2–2 Brežice JESENICE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jesenice win~~46%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.859

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.912

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jesenice win at 46%.
13′Much as we predicted: Jesenice was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–26–29
28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Jesenice 0–1 Brežice
34′A goal for Jesenice on 34′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 73–18–9
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Jesenice 2–1 Brežice
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Jesenice win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Jesenice
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Brežice
45′HALF-TIME Jesenice 2–1 Brežice
46′SECOND HALF Jesenice 2–1 Brežice
49′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Brežice
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Jesenice
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Jesenice 2–2 Brežice
74′⚽ GOAL · 72' Jesenice 2–2 Brežice
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Brežice
FTFULL TIME Jesenice 2–2 Brežice
FTJesenice 2–2 Brežice · Jesenice win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Jesenice win46%

Draw25%

Brežice win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jesenice winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

46% The market52%

Us46%

~~Market~~52%

We make Jesenice a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · jesenice win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 54% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jesenice win	46%	52%	−6
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Brežice win	29%	24%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	57%	57%	+1
Both teams to score	59%	57%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	77%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	36%	36%	0
Jesenice or draw	71%	76%	−5
Jesenice clean sheet	28%	–	–
Brežice clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.1 5.8 4.2 1 7.8 11.4 6.9 3.0 2 7.2 8.9 5.7 2.5 3 4.2 5.1 3.3 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jesenice down, Brežice across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,273 2. SNL matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Jesenice at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Brežice away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Jesenice, 1.30 for Brežice. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 2. SNL

JESENICE

WLWWWL3–1 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 5–0 · 0–4

BREŽICE

DLLLLD1–1 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 3–4 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tabor Sežana	10	+14	25
2	Triglav	9	+13	19
3	Beltinci	9	+12	19
4	Jesenice	9	+4	16
5	Slovan Ljubljana	9	−2	16
6	Rudar	10	+2	15
7	Bilje	9	0	15
8	Dren Vrhnika	9	−2	14
9	Ilirija	9	+5	13
10	Bistrica	9	−2	13
11	Dekani	9	0	12
12	Primorje	9	−5	9
13	Krško	9	−7	9
14	Krka	9	−7	7
15	Dravinja	9	−15	4
16	Brežice	9	−10	2