Jesenice v Bistrica prediction · 2. SNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

JeseniceDrawBistrica

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Bistrica 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bistrica are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jesenice 26%, draw 24%, Bistrica 50%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Jesenice v BistricaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Jesenice win26%

Draw24%

Bistrica win50%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jesenice

Bistrica

12Days since last match5

Last match: 16 Oct · 2. SNL

Last match: 23 Oct · the Slovenian Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Jesenice	11	+3	17
7	Bistrica	11	−1	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bistrica winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Bistrica a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jesenice v Bistrica~~1.28 – 1.85

~~Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 17~~6 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jesenice win	26%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Bistrica win	50%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Jesenice or draw	50%	–	–
Jesenice clean sheet	16%	–	–
Bistrica clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.3 7.5 7.4 4.6 2.2 1 5.1 10.9 9.3 5.7 2.7 2 3.7 6.5 5.9 3.6 3 2.8 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jesenice down, Bistrica across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,288 2. SNL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.4% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jesenice at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Bistrica away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Jesenice, 1.85 for Bistrica. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BIS 1–1 JES · JES 1–2 BIS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 12 Sept

JESENICE

WWWLDL3–1 · 2–0 · 5–0 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 1–2

BISTRICA

WLLWDW2–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tabor Sežana	11	+15	28
2	Beltinci	11	+17	25
3	Triglav	11	+16	25
4	Rudar	11	+4	18
5	Bilje	11	−2	18
6	Jesenice	11	+3	17
7	Bistrica	11	−1	17
8	Slovan Ljubljana	11	−4	17
9	Ilirija	11	+5	16
10	Dekani	11	0	15
11	Dren Vrhnika	11	−4	14
12	Primorje	11	−6	10
13	Krško	11	−10	9
14	Dravinja	11	−14	8
15	Krka	11	−10	7
16	Brežice	11	−9	6