Ilirija v Tabor Sežana prediction · 2. SNL

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 17:31

Ilirija 0–1 Tabor Sežana TABOR SEŽANA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tabor Sežana win~~41%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.514

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.430

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tabor Sežana win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Tabor Sežana was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 32–26–42
1′KICK-OFF Ilirija v Tabor Sežana
10′We published Tabor Sežana at 41%. Our model now makes it 69%. 0–1 · 12–19–69
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Ilirija 0–1 Tabor Sežana
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Tabor Sežana win: 41% at kick-off, 69% now
11′A goal for Tabor Sežana on 11′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–19–69
21′We published Tabor Sežana at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 11–20–70
22′A goal for Tabor Sežana on 22′. 0–1 · 11–20–70
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 10–20–71
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Tabor Sežana win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
45′HALF-TIME Ilirija 0–1 Tabor Sežana
46′SECOND HALF Ilirija 0–1 Tabor Sežana
52′We published Tabor Sežana at 41%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
66′We published Tabor Sežana at 41%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Tabor Sežana win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
76′We published Tabor Sežana at 41%. Our model now makes it 86%. 0–1 · 1–13–86
81′We published Tabor Sežana at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Tabor Sežana win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
88′We published Tabor Sežana at 41%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
90′Full time, 0–1. We called Tabor Sežana at 41% — that one lands. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Ilirija 0–1 Tabor Sežana
FTIlirija 0–1 Tabor Sežana · Tabor Sežana win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tabor Sežana are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ilirija 31%, draw 27%, Tabor Sežana 41%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Ilirija v Tabor SežanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Ilirija win31%

Draw27%

Tabor Sežana win41%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ilirija

Tabor Sežana

6Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. SNL

Last match: 9 Oct · 2. SNL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tabor sežana winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 16 Oct 03:58 · locked at kick-off

41% The market46%

Us41%

~~Market~~46%

We make Tabor Sežana a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ilirija v Tabor Sežana~~1.24 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 25~~6 v 1

~~The market · Tabor Sežana win~~46% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tabor Sežana win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ilirija win	31%	25%	+6
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Tabor Sežana win	41%	46%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	50%	46%	+4
Both teams to score	55%	50%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	76%	69%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	29%	27%	+2
Ilirija or draw	59%	54%	+5
Ilirija clean sheet	24%	–	–
Tabor Sežana clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.9 9.0 7.2 3.5 1 7.5 12.8 8.6 4.3 2 5.2 7.4 5.3 2.6 3 2.2 3.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ilirija down, Tabor Sežana across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,280 2. SNL matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ilirija at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Tabor Sežana away: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Ilirija, 1.47 for Tabor Sežana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ILI 2–3 TAB · TAB 1–1 ILI · ILI 1–1 TAB · TAB 5–2 ILI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 4 Sept

ILIRIJA

DLWLLW0–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 2–1

TABOR SEŽANA

DWLWWW0–0 · 5–1 · 1–5 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tabor Sežana	10	+14	25
2	Beltinci	10	+16	22
3	Triglav	10	+15	22
4	Jesenice	10	+4	17
5	Slovan Ljubljana	10	−2	17
6	Ilirija	10	+6	16
7	Rudar	10	+2	15
8	Bilje	10	−4	15
9	Dekani	10	+1	15
10	Bistrica	10	−2	14
11	Dren Vrhnika	10	−3	14
12	Primorje	10	−5	10
13	Krško	10	−9	9
14	Krka	10	−8	7
15	Dravinja	10	−15	5
16	Brežice	10	−10	3