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Ilirija v Krka

Ilirija

2–1Full time

Krka

2. SNL · SAT 10 OCT · Portoval

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Ilirija 2–1 Krka ILIRIJA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ilirija win~~47%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.417

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.491

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ilirija win at 47%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Ilirija 47% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
3′KICK-OFF Ilirija v Krka
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Ilirija 1–0 Krka
24′Ilirija find the net on 21′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–8
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Ilirija win: 47% at kick-off, 74% now
45′We said Ilirija at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–5
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Ilirija win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
45′HALF-TIME Ilirija 1–0 Krka
46′SECOND HALF Ilirija 1–0 Krka
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Ilirija 2–0 Krka
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Ilirija 2–1 Krka
FTFULL TIME Ilirija 2–1 Krka
FTIlirija 2–1 Krka · Ilirija win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ilirija win47%

Draw27%

Krka win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Portoval

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ilirija winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

47% The market43%

Us47%

~~Market~~43%

We make Ilirija a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ilirija win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 35% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ilirija win	47%	43%	+4
Draw	27%	27%	0
Krka win	26%	30%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	50%	51%	−2
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	74%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	28%	31%	−3
Ilirija or draw	74%	70%	+4
Ilirija clean sheet	34%	–	–
Krka clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.1 6.9 4.2 1 10.1 12.6 6.4 2.4 2 8.5 9.1 5.0 3 4.5 4.8 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ilirija down, Krka across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,273 2. SNL matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ilirija at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Krka away: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Ilirija, 1.10 for Krka. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KRK 1–4 ILI · ILI 1–1 KRK · ILI 1–1 KRK · KRK 1–0 ILI

Form · last six in 2. SNL

ILIRIJA

LDLWLL1–2 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–4

KRKA

LWWLLL2–3 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tabor Sežana	10	+14	25
2	Triglav	9	+13	19
3	Beltinci	9	+12	19
4	Jesenice	9	+4	16
5	Slovan Ljubljana	9	−2	16
6	Rudar	10	+2	15
7	Bilje	9	0	15
8	Dren Vrhnika	9	−2	14
9	Ilirija	9	+5	13
10	Bistrica	9	−2	13
11	Dekani	9	0	12
12	Primorje	9	−5	9
13	Krško	9	−7	9
14	Krka	9	−7	7
15	Dravinja	9	−15	4
16	Brežice	9	−10	2