Ilirija v Bilje prediction · 2. SNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

IlirijaDrawBilje

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ilirija 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ilirija are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ilirija 49%, draw 25%, Bilje 26%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Ilirija v BiljeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Ilirija win49%

Draw25%

Bilje win26%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ilirija

Bilje

11Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · 2. SNL

Last match: 23 Oct · the Slovenian Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Bilje	11	−2	18
9	Ilirija	11	+5	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ilirija winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Ilirija a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ilirija v Bilje~~1.72 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 18~~9 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ilirija win	49%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Bilje win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Ilirija or draw	74%	–	–
Ilirija clean sheet	31%	–	–
Bilje clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.4 5.9 3.9 1 8.7 11.7 6.5 2.6 2 8.0 9.3 5.5 2.2 3 4.6 5.3 3.2 4 2.0 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ilirija down, Bilje across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,288 2. SNL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.4% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ilirija at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bilje away: 2.00 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Ilirija, 1.19 for Bilje. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ILI 1–0 BIL · BIL 1–1 ILI · BIL 1–0 ILI · ILI 2–0 BIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 11 Sept

ILIRIJA

LWLLWL1–3 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 2–1 · 0–1

BILJE

WLLWLW3–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–5 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tabor Sežana	11	+15	28
2	Beltinci	11	+17	25
3	Triglav	11	+16	25
4	Rudar	11	+4	18
5	Bilje	11	−2	18
6	Jesenice	11	+3	17
7	Bistrica	11	−1	17
8	Slovan Ljubljana	11	−4	17
9	Ilirija	11	+5	16
10	Dekani	11	0	15
11	Dren Vrhnika	11	−4	14
12	Primorje	11	−6	10
13	Krško	11	−10	9
14	Dravinja	11	−14	8
15	Krka	11	−10	7
16	Brežice	11	−9	6