Dren Vrhnika v Ilirija prediction · 2. SNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Dren VrhnikaDrawIlirija

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Dren Vrhnika 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dren Vrhnika are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dren Vrhnika 41%, draw 28%, Ilirija 32%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Dren Vrhnika v IlirijaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Dren Vrhnika win41%

Draw28%

Ilirija win32%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dren Vrhnika

Ilirija

13Days since last match15

Last match: 18 Oct · 2. SNL

Last match: 16 Oct · 2. SNL

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Ilirija	11	+5	16
11	Dren Vrhnika	11	−4	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dren vrhnika winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Dren Vrhnika a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dren Vrhnika v Ilirija~~1.40 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 16~~11 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dren Vrhnika win	41%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Ilirija win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Dren Vrhnika or draw	68%	–	–
Dren Vrhnika clean sheet	31%	–	–
Ilirija clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 8.5 8.2 5.4 2.2 1 9.6 13.0 7.3 3.0 2 7.3 8.5 5.1 2.1 3 3.4 4.0 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dren Vrhnika down, Ilirija across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,288 2. SNL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.4% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Dren Vrhnika at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ilirija away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Dren Vrhnika, 1.20 for Ilirija. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 12 Sept

DREN VRHNIKA

DWLDLL0–0 · 2–1 · 0–5 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

ILIRIJA

LWLLWL1–3 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tabor Sežana	11	+15	28
2	Beltinci	11	+17	25
3	Triglav	11	+16	25
4	Rudar	11	+4	18
5	Bilje	11	−2	18
6	Jesenice	11	+3	17
7	Bistrica	11	−1	17
8	Slovan Ljubljana	11	−4	17
9	Ilirija	11	+5	16
10	Dekani	11	0	15
11	Dren Vrhnika	11	−4	14
12	Primorje	11	−6	10
13	Krško	11	−10	9
14	Dravinja	11	−14	8
15	Krka	11	−10	7
16	Brežice	11	−9	6