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Dren Vrhnika v Beltinci

Dren Vrhnika
1–2Full time
Beltinci

2. SNL · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17
Dren Vrhnika 1–2 Beltinci BELTINCI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Beltinci win49%
The market said57%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.384
The market’s Brier score0.281

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Beltinci win at 49%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Beltinci was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 25–25–49
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Dren Vrhnika v Beltinci
  4. 10′We said Beltinci at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–0 · 52–23–25
  5. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Dren Vrhnika 1–0 Beltinci
  6. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Beltinci win: 49% at kick-off, 25% now
  7. 10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Dren Vrhnika win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Beltinci win 25%)
  8. 11′Dren Vrhnika score on 11′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 52–23–25
  9. 12′We said Beltinci at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 52–23–24
  10. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Beltinci win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
  11. 30′We said Beltinci at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 56–25–19
  12. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 56–25–19
  13. 44′We said Beltinci at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–25–14
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Dren Vrhnika 1–0 Beltinci
  15. 45′SECOND HALF Dren Vrhnika 1–0 Beltinci
  16. 55′We said Beltinci at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 21–44–35
  17. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Dren Vrhnika 1–1 Beltinci
  18. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Beltinci win: 49% at kick-off, 35% now
  19. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Dren Vrhnika win 21%)
  20. 56′Beltinci find the net on 56′. 1–1. 1–1 · 21–44–35
  21. 57′We said Beltinci at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 21–45–34
  22. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Beltinci win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
  23. 68′We published Beltinci at 49%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–2 · 2–15–83
  24. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Dren Vrhnika 1–2 Beltinci
  25. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Beltinci win: 49% at kick-off, 83% now
  26. 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Beltinci win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
  27. 69′A goal for Beltinci on 69′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–83
  28. 69′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 2–14–83
  29. 72′We published Beltinci at 49%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
  30. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Beltinci win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
  31. 80′We published Beltinci at 49%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
  32. 87′We published Beltinci at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  33. 88′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Dren Vrhnika
  34. 93′Full time, 1–2. We called Beltinci at 49% — that one lands. 1–2 · 0–0–100
  35. FTFULL TIME Dren Vrhnika 1–2 Beltinci
  36. FTDren Vrhnika 1–2 Beltinci · Beltinci win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Beltinci are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dren Vrhnika 25%, draw 25%, Beltinci 49%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Dren Vrhnika v BeltinciBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dren Vrhnika win25%
Draw25%
Beltinci win49%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dren Vrhnika

Beltinci

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. SNL

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. SNL

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Beltinci10+1622
11Dren Vrhnika10−314

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · beltinci winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
49% The market57%
Us49%
Market57%

We make Beltinci a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Dren Vrhnika v Beltinci1.15 – 1.71
Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 4 SeptW2 D2 L2 · W5 D1 L0
Table places · points 14 v 2211 v 3
The market · Beltinci win57% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 12 OCT 04:0518 OCT 13:50
Our probability · Beltinci win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Dren Vrhnika win25%20%+5
Draw25%24%+1
Beltinci win49%57%−8
Over 2.5 goals54%56%−2
Both teams to score56%55%+1
Over 1.5 goals78%78%0
Over 3.5 goals32%35%−3
Dren Vrhnika or draw51%43%+8
Dren Vrhnika clean sheet19%––
Beltinci clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%
0123450 6.8 9.1 8.2 4.7 2.1 1 6.1 11.8 9.2 5.3 2.3 2 3.9 6.4 5.3 3.0 3 2.5 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Dren Vrhnika down, Beltinci across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 4 Sept

DREN VRHNIKA

WDWLDL4–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–5 · 0–0 · 0–1

BELTINCI

WDWWWW3–2 · 0–0 · 5–1 · 3–0 · 4–2 · 5–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Tabor Sežana11+1528
2Triglav11+1625
3Beltinci10+1622
4Rudar11+418
5Bilje11−218
6Jesenice11+317
7Bistrica11−117
8Slovan Ljubljana11−417
9Ilirija11+516
10Dekani11015
11Dren Vrhnika10−314
12Primorje11−610
13Krško10−99
14Dravinja11−148
15Krka11−107
16Brežice10−103

The competition's standings before kick-off.