

Dren Vrhnika v Beltinci
Dren Vrhnika
Beltinci2. SNL · SUN 18 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Beltinci win at 49%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Beltinci was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 25–25–49
- 1′KICK-OFF Dren Vrhnika v Beltinci
- 10′We said Beltinci at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–0 · 52–23–25
- 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Dren Vrhnika 1–0 Beltinci
- 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Beltinci win: 49% at kick-off, 25% now
- 10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Dren Vrhnika win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Beltinci win 25%)
- 11′Dren Vrhnika score on 11′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 52–23–25
- 12′We said Beltinci at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 52–23–24
- 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Beltinci win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
- 30′We said Beltinci at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 56–25–19
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 56–25–19
- 44′We said Beltinci at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–25–14
- 45′HALF-TIME Dren Vrhnika 1–0 Beltinci
- 45′SECOND HALF Dren Vrhnika 1–0 Beltinci
- 55′We said Beltinci at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 21–44–35
- 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Dren Vrhnika 1–1 Beltinci
- 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Beltinci win: 49% at kick-off, 35% now
- 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Dren Vrhnika win 21%)
- 56′Beltinci find the net on 56′. 1–1. 1–1 · 21–44–35
- 57′We said Beltinci at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 21–45–34
- 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Beltinci win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
- 68′We published Beltinci at 49%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–2 · 2–15–83
- 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Dren Vrhnika 1–2 Beltinci
- 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Beltinci win: 49% at kick-off, 83% now
- 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Beltinci win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
- 69′A goal for Beltinci on 69′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–83
- 69′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 2–14–83
- 72′We published Beltinci at 49%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Beltinci win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
- 80′We published Beltinci at 49%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
- 87′We published Beltinci at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
- 88′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Dren Vrhnika
- 93′Full time, 1–2. We called Beltinci at 49% — that one lands. 1–2 · 0–0–100
- FTFULL TIME Dren Vrhnika 1–2 Beltinci
- FTDren Vrhnika 1–2 Beltinci · Beltinci win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Beltinci are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Dren Vrhnika 25%, draw 25%, Beltinci 49%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Dren Vrhnika win25%
Beltinci win49%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30
RoundMatchday 11
Match timeline
All events
Dren VrhnikaMIN
BeltinciEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Dren Vrhnika
Beltinci
Last match: 10 Oct · 2. SNL
Last match: 10 Oct · 2. SNL
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Beltinci a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dren Vrhnika win | 25% | 20% | +5 |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | +1 |
| Beltinci win | 49% | 57% | −8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 35% | −3 |
| Dren Vrhnika or draw | 51% | 43% | +8 |
| Dren Vrhnika clean sheet | 19% | – | – |
| Beltinci clean sheet | 32% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2025/26No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 4 Sept
DREN VRHNIKA
BELTINCI
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabor Sežana | 11 | +15 | 28 |
| 2 | Triglav | 11 | +16 | 25 |
| 3 | Beltinci | 10 | +16 | 22 |
| 4 | Rudar | 11 | +4 | 18 |
| 5 | Bilje | 11 | −2 | 18 |
| 6 | Jesenice | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 | Bistrica | 11 | −1 | 17 |
| 8 | Slovan Ljubljana | 11 | −4 | 17 |
| 9 | Ilirija | 11 | +5 | 16 |
| 10 | Dekani | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Dren Vrhnika | 10 | −3 | 14 |
| 12 | Primorje | 11 | −6 | 10 |
| 13 | Krško | 10 | −9 | 9 |
| 14 | Dravinja | 11 | −14 | 8 |
| 15 | Krka | 11 | −10 | 7 |
| 16 | Brežice | 10 | −10 | 3 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Tabor Sežana
Triglav
Rudar
Bilje
Jesenice
Bistrica
Slovan Ljubljana
Ilirija
Dekani
Primorje
Krško
Dravinja
Krka
Brežice