Dravinja v Jesenice prediction · 2. SNL

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 19:31

Dravinja 2–1 Jesenice DRAVINJA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dravinja win~~45%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.446

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.736

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dravinja win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Dravinja 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–24–29
1′KICK-OFF Dravinja v Jesenice
11′We said Dravinja at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–18–11
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Dravinja 1–0 Jesenice
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Dravinja win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
12′Dravinja find the net on 11′. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–18–11
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Dravinja 1–1 Jesenice
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Dravinja win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
33′A goal for Jesenice on 32′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 40–32–27
45′SECOND HALF Dravinja 1–1 Jesenice
46′HALF-TIME Dravinja 1–1 Jesenice
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Dravinja win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dravinja win 35%)
55′We said Dravinja at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–43–24
64′We said Dravinja at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–51–21
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Dravinja win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
70′We said Dravinja at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–58–18
76′We said Dravinja at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–67–14
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Dravinja win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
81′We said Dravinja at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–76–10
85′We said Dravinja at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Dravinja win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
91′We said Dravinja at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–3
92′We said Dravinja at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–1 · 97–3–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Dravinja 2–1 Jesenice
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Dravinja win: 45% at kick-off, 97% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Dravinja win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
93′Dravinja score on 90′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 98–2–0
93′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 98–2–0
FTFULL TIME Dravinja 2–1 Jesenice
FTDravinja 2–1 Jesenice · Dravinja win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dravinja are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dravinja 45%, draw 26%, Jesenice 29%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Dravinja v JeseniceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Dravinja win45%

Draw26%

Jesenice win29%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dravinja

Jesenice

5Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. SNL

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. SNL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Jesenice	10	+4	17
15	Dravinja	10	−15	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dravinja winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

45% The market31%

Us45%

~~Market~~31%

We make Dravinja a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dravinja v Jesenice~~1.64 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 17~~15 v 4

~~The market · Dravinja win~~31% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dravinja win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dravinja win	45%	31%	+14
Draw	26%	26%	0
Jesenice win	29%	43%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	55%	58%	−3
Both teams to score	58%	61%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	33%	37%	−4
Dravinja or draw	71%	57%	+14
Dravinja clean sheet	29%	–	–
Jesenice clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.6 6.2 4.4 1 8.3 12.0 7.0 3.0 2 7.4 9.1 5.6 2.4 3 4.1 5.0 3.1 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dravinja down, Jesenice across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,280 2. SNL matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dravinja at home: 1.67 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Jesenice away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Dravinja, 1.26 for Jesenice. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~JES 0–1 DRA · DRA 0–2 JES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 5 Sept

DRAVINJA

DLWLLD1–1 · 1–5 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 1–1

JESENICE

LWWWLD0–2 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 5–0 · 0–4 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tabor Sežana	10	+14	25
2	Beltinci	10	+16	22
3	Triglav	10	+15	22
4	Jesenice	10	+4	17
5	Slovan Ljubljana	10	−2	17
6	Ilirija	10	+6	16
7	Rudar	10	+2	15
8	Bilje	10	−4	15
9	Dekani	10	+1	15
10	Bistrica	10	−2	14
11	Dren Vrhnika	10	−3	14
12	Primorje	10	−5	10
13	Krško	10	−9	9
14	Krka	10	−8	7
15	Dravinja	10	−15	5
16	Brežice	10	−10	3