Bistrica v Primorje prediction · 2. SNL

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Bistrica 1–0 Primorje BISTRICA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bistrica win~~48%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.404

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.439

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bistrica win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bistrica 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
1′KICK-OFF Bistrica v Primorje
9′Bistrica score on 8′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–16–10
9′We said Bistrica at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–16–10
9′⚽ GOAL · 8' Bistrica 1–0 Primorje
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Bistrica win: 48% at kick-off, 74% now
27′We said Bistrica at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–8
38′Bistrica score on 8′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–18–7
39′We said Bistrica at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–18–7
39′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 76–18–7
42′Bistrica find the net on 42′. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Bistrica 2–0 Primorje
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Bistrica win: 48% at kick-off, 94% now
43′We said Bistrica at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Bistrica
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Bistrica win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
45′HALF-TIME Bistrica 1–0 Primorje
46′SECOND HALF Bistrica 1–0 Primorje
60′We said Bistrica at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
72′We said Bistrica at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Bistrica win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
87′We said Bistrica at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Bistrica win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME Bistrica 1–0 Primorje
FTBistrica 1–0 Primorje · Bistrica win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bistrica are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bistrica 48%, draw 26%, Primorje 26%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Bistrica v PrimorjeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bistrica win48%

Draw26%

Primorje win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bistrica

Primorje

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. SNL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Bistrica	10	−2	14
12	Primorje	10	−5	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bistrica winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market46%

Us48%

~~Market~~46%

We make Bistrica a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bistrica v Primorje~~1.67 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 10~~10 v 12

~~The market · Bistrica win~~46% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bistrica win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bistrica win	48%	46%	+2
Draw	26%	26%	0
Primorje win	26%	28%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	54%	54%	0
Both teams to score	56%	57%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	75%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	32%	33%	−1
Bistrica or draw	74%	72%	+2
Bistrica clean sheet	32%	–	–
Primorje clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.0 6.2 4.1 1 9.1 11.9 6.5 2.6 2 8.1 9.2 5.3 2.1 3 4.5 5.2 3.0 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bistrica down, Primorje across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,283 2. SNL matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.2% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bistrica at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Primorje away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Bistrica, 1.17 for Primorje. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BIS 1–1 PRI · PRI 2–2 BIS · PRI 2–0 BIS · BIS 0–0 PRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 4 Sept

BISTRICA

LWLLWD0–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1

PRIMORJE

DLLDDD0–0 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tabor Sežana	11	+15	28
2	Triglav	11	+16	25
3	Beltinci	10	+16	22
4	Jesenice	11	+3	17
5	Slovan Ljubljana	10	−2	17
6	Ilirija	11	+5	16
7	Rudar	10	+2	15
8	Bilje	10	−4	15
9	Dekani	11	0	15
10	Bistrica	10	−2	14
11	Dren Vrhnika	10	−3	14
12	Primorje	10	−5	10
13	Krško	10	−9	9
14	Dravinja	11	−14	8
15	Krka	10	−8	7
16	Brežice	10	−10	3