Bilje v Krka prediction · 2. SNL

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Bilje 2–0 Krka BILJE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bilje win~~42%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.503

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.656

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bilje win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bilje 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
1′KICK-OFF Bilje v Krka
33′Little has changed for our model: Bilje 42% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–34–29
34′A goal for Bilje on 34′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–9
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Bilje 1–0 Krka
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Bilje win: 42% at kick-off, 71% now
35′We said Bilje at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–9
35′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Bilje win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
45′HALF-TIME Bilje 1–0 Krka
46′SECOND HALF Bilje 1–0 Krka
51′We said Bilje at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
66′We said Bilje at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Bilje win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
75′We said Bilje at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
81′We said Bilje at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Bilje win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
88′We said Bilje at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
93′Bilje score on 90′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
93′We said Bilje at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Bilje 2–0 Krka
FTFULL TIME Bilje 2–0 Krka
FTBilje 2–0 Krka · Bilje win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bilje are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bilje 42%, draw 27%, Krka 31%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Bilje v KrkaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bilje win42%

Draw27%

Krka win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bilje

Krka

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. SNL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Bilje	10	−4	15
15	Krka	10	−8	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bilje winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market34%

Us42%

~~Market~~34%

We make Bilje a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bilje v Krka~~1.50 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 15 v 7~~8 v 15

~~The market · Bilje win~~34% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bilje win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bilje win	42%	34%	+8
Draw	27%	27%	0
Krka win	31%	39%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	52%	56%	−4
Both teams to score	56%	60%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	34%	−4
Bilje or draw	69%	61%	+8
Bilje clean sheet	29%	–	–
Krka clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.4 7.2 5.0 2.1 1 8.8 12.6 7.3 3.1 2 7.1 8.7 5.5 2.3 3 3.6 4.4 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bilje down, Krka across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,283 2. SNL matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.2% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bilje at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Krka away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Bilje, 1.26 for Krka. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BIL 0–0 KRK · KRK 0–1 BIL · KRK 2–2 BIL · BIL 0–0 KRK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. SNL this season · since 5 Sept

BILJE

WWLLWL4–0 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–5

KRKA

WWLLLL2–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tabor Sežana	11	+15	28
2	Triglav	11	+16	25
3	Beltinci	10	+16	22
4	Jesenice	11	+3	17
5	Slovan Ljubljana	10	−2	17
6	Ilirija	11	+5	16
7	Rudar	10	+2	15
8	Bilje	10	−4	15
9	Dekani	11	0	15
10	Bistrica	10	−2	14
11	Dren Vrhnika	10	−3	14
12	Primorje	10	−5	10
13	Krško	10	−9	9
14	Dravinja	11	−14	8
15	Krka	10	−8	7
16	Brežice	10	−10	3