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Beltinci v Bilje

Beltinci

5–1Full time

Bilje

2. SNL · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Beltinci 5–1 Bilje BELTINCI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Beltinci win~~66%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.173

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.142

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Beltinci win at 66%.
9′1′ and it is 0–1: Bilje have scored. 0–1 · 41–24–35
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Beltinci win: 66% at kick-off, 41% now
29′We said Beltinci at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–1 · 32–27–41
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Beltinci win: 66% at kick-off, 32% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Bilje win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Beltinci win 32%)
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Beltinci 1–1 Bilje
45′⚽ GOAL · 44' Beltinci 2–1 Bilje
45′HALF-TIME Beltinci 2–1 Bilje
48′SECOND HALF Beltinci 2–1 Bilje
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Beltinci 3–1 Bilje
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Beltinci 4–1 Bilje
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Beltinci 5–1 Bilje
FTFULL TIME Beltinci 5–1 Bilje
FTBeltinci 5–1 Bilje · Beltinci win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Beltinci win66%

Draw20%

Bilje win14%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · beltinci winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

66% The market69%

Us66%

~~Market~~69%

We make Beltinci a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · beltinci win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Beltinci win	66%	69%	−3
Draw	20%	18%	+2
Bilje win	14%	13%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	63%	65%	−2
Both teams to score	56%	54%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	84%	80%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	41%	45%	−4
Beltinci or draw	86%	87%	−1
Beltinci clean sheet	39%	–	–
Bilje clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.0%

0123450 4.7 3.2 1 8.3 9.1 4.1 2 10.0 9.4 4.6 3 7.6 7.2 3.5 4 4.4 4.2 2.0 5 2.1 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Beltinci down, Bilje across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,273 2. SNL matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.10 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Beltinci at home: 3.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bilje away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.31 goals for Beltinci, 0.96 for Bilje. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BEL 1–3 BIL · BIL 0–1 BEL · BIL 4–2 BEL · BEL 2–1 BIL

Form · last six in 2. SNL

BELTINCI

LWDWWW1–3 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 5–1 · 3–0 · 4–2

BILJE

LWWLLW1–4 · 4–0 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tabor Sežana	10	+14	25
2	Triglav	9	+13	19
3	Beltinci	9	+12	19
4	Jesenice	9	+4	16
5	Slovan Ljubljana	9	−2	16
6	Rudar	10	+2	15
7	Bilje	9	0	15
8	Dren Vrhnika	9	−2	14
9	Ilirija	9	+5	13
10	Bistrica	9	−2	13
11	Dekani	9	0	12
12	Primorje	9	−5	9
13	Krško	9	−7	9
14	Krka	9	−7	7
15	Dravinja	9	−15	4
16	Brežice	9	−10	2