Radomlje v Mura prediction · 1. SNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

RadomljeDrawMura

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Radomlje 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Radomlje are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Radomlje 42%, draw 26%, Mura 32%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Radomlje v MuraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Radomlje win42%

Draw26%

Mura win32%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Radomlje

Mura

3Days since last match10

Last match: 24 Oct · the Slovenian Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. SNL

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Mura	12	−11	11
10	Radomlje	11	−9	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · radomlje winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

42% The market32%

Us42%

~~Market~~32%

We make Radomlje a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Radomlje v Mura~~1.57 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in 1. SNL this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 11~~10 v 9

~~The market · Radomlje win~~32% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Radomlje win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Radomlje win	42%	32%	+10
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Mura win	32%	41%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	56%	53%	+3
Both teams to score	59%	57%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	75%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	33%	32%	+1
Radomlje or draw	68%	59%	+9
Radomlje clean sheet	26%	–	–
Mura clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.5 6.4 5.0 2.3 1 7.6 12.2 7.6 3.4 2 6.6 8.8 5.9 2.7 3 3.5 4.6 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Radomlje down, Mura across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 948 1. SNL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Radomlje at home: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Mura away: 1.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Radomlje, 1.35 for Mura. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MUR 1–3 RAD · RAD 3–2 MUR · MUR 2–0 RAD · RAD 3–1 MUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. SNL this season · since 29 Aug

RADOMLJE

DLLLDD0–0 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 2–2

MURA

LDLDDD0–2 · 1–1 · 1–6 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maribor	12	+12	24
2	Koper	12	+8	22
3	Bravo	12	+1	19
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	12	+3	18
5	Nafta	12	+2	17
6	Celje	11	+1	16
7	Aluminij	12	+3	13
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	12	−10	11
9	Mura	12	−11	11
10	Radomlje	11	−9	7