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Radomlje v Koper

Radomlje

3–3Full time

Koper

1. SNL · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Radomlje 3–3 Koper KOPER WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Koper win~~56%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.938

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.900

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 39 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Koper win at 56%.
4′KICK-OFF Radomlje v Koper
5′Little has changed for our model: Koper 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 21–23–56
8′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Koper
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Radomlje 1–0 Koper
8′⚽ GOAL · 9' Radomlje 1–0 Koper
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Radomlje 1–1 Koper · J. Martincic
17′⚽ GOAL · 18' Radomlje 1–1 Koper
19′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Radomlje
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Radomlje 1–2 Koper
23′A. Ruedl scores for Koper on 22′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 7–15–79
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Koper win: 56% at kick-off, 79% now
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' B. Burcul · Radomlje
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Radomlje 2–2 Koper · A. Ruedl
31′⚽ GOAL · 32' Radomlje 2–2 Koper
34′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Radomlje
39′🟨 YELLOW · 8' B. Ndiaye · Koper
39′⚽ GOAL · 9' Radomlje 2–2 Koper · J. Martincic (assist B. Anzelj)
39′⚽ GOAL · 18' Radomlje 2–2 Koper · J. Ilicic
39′🟨 YELLOW · 20' A. Bosec · Radomlje
39′⚽ GOAL · 22' Radomlje 2–2 Koper · A. Ruedl (assist F. Tomek)
39′🟨 YELLOW · 28' B. Burcul · Radomlje
39′⚽ GOAL · 32' Radomlje 2–2 Koper · V. Pelko (assist D. Ikenna)
39′🟨 YELLOW · 35' B. Anzelj · Radomlje
43′32′ and it is 2–2: V. Pelko on the scoresheet for Radomlje. 2–2 · 20–34–46
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Koper win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
45′SECOND HALF Radomlje 2–2 Koper
46′We said Koper at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 2–2 · 20–36–44
51′🟨 YELLOW · 49' J. Jelen · Radomlje
54′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Koper
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Radomlje · On: D. Kantuzer · Off: N. Marinsek
72′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Koper · On: K. Manseri · Off: A. Ruedl
72′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Koper · On: C. Diakite · Off: F. Tomek
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' D. Ikenna · Radomlje
72′🟥 RED CARD · 71' Radomlje
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Radomlje · On: J. Balic · Off: J. Martincic
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Radomlje 2–3 Koper
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Koper · On: R. Beric · Off: J. Ilicic
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Koper · On: D. Pejicic · Off: B. Ndiaye
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Radomlje · On: S. Bangura · Off: B. Burcul
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Radomlje · On: A. Goljevscek · Off: V. Pelko
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Koper · On: N. Simon · Off: I. Matondo
91′⚽ GOAL · 92' Radomlje 3–3 Koper
FTFULL TIME Radomlje 3–3 Koper
FTRadomlje 3–3 Koper · Koper win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Radomlje win20%

Draw24%

Koper win56%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Referee · B. Mertik

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Radomlje

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Pridgar

87 B. Graonic

4 B. Anzelj

24 B. Burcul

2 A. Bosec

41 M. Zaper

10 N. Marinsek

8 J. Jelen

11 J. Martincic

7 D. Ikenna

9 V. Pelko

Coach · Radostin Aleksandrov

Substitutes

13 · N. Dermastija

73 · D. Churakov

22 · A. Paic

14 · L. Veber

16 · D. Buvac

33 · T. Puc

66 · D. Kantuzer

15 · A. Zabukovnik

23 · J. Balic

70 · A. Goljevscek

27 · S. Bangura

Koper

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Bas

18 G. Agyemang

5 F. Backulja

69 B. Negouai

47 A. Roncal

25 D. Bangaly

6 F. Tomek

72 J. Ilicic

27 A. Ruedl

45 I. Matondo

8 B. Ndiaye

Coach · Milan Andjelkovic

Substitutes

90 · E. Piana

29 · L. Gucek

16 · B. P. Kerma

33 · A. Marinic

4 · L. Stulac

86 · S. Surdanovic

22 · C. Diakite

26 · B. Adrovic

99 · K. Manseri

11 · N. Simon

79 · D. Pejicic

19 · R. Beric

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Radomlje

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Pridgar

87 B. Graonic

4 B. Anzelj

24 B. Burcul

2 A. Bosec

41 M. Zaper

10 N. Marinsek

8 J. Jelen

11 J. Martincic

7 D. Ikenna

9 V. Pelko

Coach · Radostin Aleksandrov

Substitutes

13 · N. Dermastija

73 · D. Churakov

22 · A. Paic

14 · L. Veber

16 · D. Buvac

33 · T. Puc

66 · D. Kantuzer

15 · A. Zabukovnik

23 · J. Balic

70 · A. Goljevscek

27 · S. Bangura

Koper

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Bas

18 G. Agyemang

5 F. Backulja

69 B. Negouai

47 A. Roncal

25 D. Bangaly

6 F. Tomek

72 J. Ilicic

27 A. Ruedl

45 I. Matondo

8 B. Ndiaye

Coach · Milan Andjelkovic

Substitutes

90 · E. Piana

29 · L. Gucek

16 · B. P. Kerma

33 · A. Marinic

4 · L. Stulac

86 · S. Surdanovic

22 · C. Diakite

26 · B. Adrovic

99 · K. Manseri

11 · N. Simon

79 · D. Pejicic

19 · R. Beric

Our number · koper winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

56% The market53%

Us56%

~~Market~~53%

We make Koper a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.9.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Radomlje win	20%	23%	−2
Draw	24%	24%	−1
Koper win	56%	53%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	58%	57%	+2
Both teams to score	57%	57%	0
Over 1.5 goals	81%	78%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	36%	36%	0
Radomlje or draw	44%	47%	−3
Radomlje clean sheet	15%	–	–
Koper clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.9 8.5 9.0 5.8 2.9 1 4.5 11.0 9.6 6.2 3.1 2 2.9 5.5 5.3 3.4 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Radomlje down, Koper across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 938 1. SNL matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

21 previous meetings, 2.86 goals a meeting; 12 of 21 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Radomlje at home: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Koper away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Radomlje, 1.95 for Koper. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

21 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.86

~~Over 2.5~~12 of 21

~~Both scored~~14 of 21

~~Last meetings~~KOP 2–2 RAD · RAD 0–3 KOP · KOP 2–2 RAD · RAD 1–1 KOP

Form · last six in 1. SNL

RADOMLJE

WLDLLL3–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 1–2

KOPER

DWWWLW0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maribor	10	+11	20
2	Koper	10	+3	18
3	Bravo	10	+2	18
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	10	+2	14
5	Aluminij	10	+5	13
6	Nafta	10	+1	13
7	Celje	9	0	12
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	10	−4	11
9	Mura	10	−11	9
10	Radomlje	9	−9	5