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Olimpija Ljubljana v Mura

Olimpija Ljubljana

3–3Full time

Mura

1. SNL · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion Stozice

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:46

Olimpija Ljubljana 3–3 Mura OLIMPIJA LJUBLJANA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Olimpija Ljubljana win~~59%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.930

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.910

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Olimpija Ljubljana win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Olimpija Ljubljana was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–24–17
1′KICK-OFF Olimpija Ljubljana v Mura
2′Much as we predicted: Olimpija Ljubljana was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–24–17
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 Mura
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 Mura
33′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Mura
45′SECOND HALF Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 Mura
47′⚽ GOAL · 31' Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 Mura · I. Tuci
47′🟨 YELLOW · 33' A. Zeljkovic · Mura
50′⚽ GOAL · 31' Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 Mura · I. Tuci
50′🟨 YELLOW · 33' A. Zeljkovic · Mura
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Olimpija Ljubljana 2–0 Mura · I. Tuci
51′⚽ GOAL · 52' Olimpija Ljubljana 2–0 Mura
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Olimpija Ljubljana 2–1 Mura · I. Tuci
53′⚽ GOAL · 54' Olimpija Ljubljana 2–1 Mura
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Olimpija Ljubljana · On: D. Mitrovski · Off: B. Lourenco
63′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Mura
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Olimpija Ljubljana 3–1 Mura · N. Kasalo
64′⚽ GOAL · 65' Olimpija Ljubljana 3–1 Mura · A. Marin
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Olimpija Ljubljana 3–2 Mura · A. Marin
68′⚽ GOAL · 69' Olimpija Ljubljana 3–2 Mura
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Olimpija Ljubljana 3–2 Mura · D. Oroian
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Olimpija Ljubljana
73′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Mura
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Mura · On: L. Bobicanec · Off: S. Butic
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Olimpija Ljubljana 3–3 Mura · D. Oroian
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Mura · On: F. Jevsenak · Off: N. Kasalo
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Olimpija Ljubljana 3–3 Mura
85′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Mura
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Mura
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Z. Petrovic · Mura
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Mura · On: A. Korosec · Off: N. Kouter
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Mura · On: I. Jelic · Off: A. Zalaznik
91′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Olimpija Ljubljana · On: A. Tamm · Off: A. Doffo
FTFULL TIME Olimpija Ljubljana 3–3 Mura
FTOlimpija Ljubljana 3–3 Mura · Olimpija Ljubljana win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Olimpija Ljubljana win59%

Draw25%

Mura win16%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:15

Venue · Stadion Stozice

Referee · A. Bubek

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Olimpija Ljubljana

Formation not confirmed

26 M. Vidovsek

28 Diga

30 J. Gorenc

15 M. Ristic

3 J. Urbancic

34 A. Doffo

90 R. Miskovic

8 B. Lourenco

9 D. Kojic

99 A. Marin

19 I. Tuci

Coach · Miso Brecko

Substitutes

22 · D. Pintol

6 · L. Perea

10 · D. Mitrovski

11 · F. Rose

14 · K. Bendra

18 · M. Brest

24 · A. Tamm

33 · J. Govea

54 · J. Jurgec

55 · M. Henjak

71 · T. Goga

79 · Y. Kallon

Mura

Formation not confirmed

33 Z. Fermisek

26 B. Proleta

3 A. Zeljkovic

56 M. Matic

77 D. Oroian

18 A. Zalaznik

10 N. Kouter

47 S. Butic

21 Z. Petrovic

7 N. Kasalo

30 K. Kurtovic

Coach · Mitja Morec

Substitutes

81 · N. Antonic

2 · F. Sana

5 · I. Jelic

17 · K. Trdin

88 · A. Korosec

23 · J. Kovacic

24 · L. Kitin

6 · F. Jevsenak

8 · L. Bobicanec

9 · M. Ascic

99 · R. Caks

71 · B. Dimitrov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Olimpija Ljubljana

Formation not confirmed

26 M. Vidovsek

28 Diga

30 J. Gorenc

15 M. Ristic

3 J. Urbancic

34 A. Doffo

90 R. Miskovic

8 B. Lourenco

9 D. Kojic

99 A. Marin

19 I. Tuci

Coach · Miso Brecko

Substitutes

22 · D. Pintol

6 · L. Perea

10 · D. Mitrovski

11 · F. Rose

14 · K. Bendra

18 · M. Brest

24 · A. Tamm

33 · J. Govea

54 · J. Jurgec

55 · M. Henjak

71 · T. Goga

79 · Y. Kallon

Mura

Formation not confirmed

33 Z. Fermisek

26 B. Proleta

3 A. Zeljkovic

56 M. Matic

77 D. Oroian

18 A. Zalaznik

10 N. Kouter

47 S. Butic

21 Z. Petrovic

7 N. Kasalo

30 K. Kurtovic

Coach · Mitja Morec

Substitutes

81 · N. Antonic

2 · F. Sana

5 · I. Jelic

17 · K. Trdin

88 · A. Korosec

23 · J. Kovacic

24 · L. Kitin

6 · F. Jevsenak

8 · L. Bobicanec

9 · M. Ascic

99 · R. Caks

71 · B. Dimitrov

Our number · olimpija ljubljana winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

59% The market56%

Us59%

~~Market~~56%

We make Olimpija Ljubljana a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · olimpija ljubljana win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 51% to 56% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olimpija Ljubljana win	59%	56%	+3
Draw	25%	25%	0
Mura win	16%	18%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	46%	49%	−3
Both teams to score	45%	49%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	72%	72%	0
Over 3.5 goals	25%	28%	−4
Olimpija Ljubljana or draw	84%	82%	+3
Olimpija Ljubljana clean sheet	46%	–	–
Mura clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.1%

0123450 9.3 5.4 2.5 1 13.1 11.8 4.2 2 12.1 9.3 3.6 3 7.0 5.4 2.1 4 3.1 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olimpija Ljubljana down, Mura across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 938 1. SNL matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

21 previous meetings, 2.14 goals a meeting; 7 of 21 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Olimpija Ljubljana at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Mura away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Olimpija Ljubljana, 0.78 for Mura. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

21 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.14

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 21

~~Both scored~~8 of 21

~~Last meetings~~MUR 1–0 OLI · MUR 0–0 OLI · OLI 1–0 MUR · MUR 0–2 OLI

Form · last six in 1. SNL

OLIMPIJA LJUBLJANA

DWDWWL1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 1–2

MURA

WLLDLD2–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–6 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maribor	10	+11	20
2	Koper	10	+3	18
3	Bravo	10	+2	18
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	10	+2	14
5	Aluminij	10	+5	13
6	Nafta	10	+1	13
7	Celje	9	0	12
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	10	−4	11
9	Mura	10	−11	9
10	Radomlje	9	−9	5