Olimpija Ljubljana v Celje prediction · 1. SNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Olimpija LjubljanaDrawCelje

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Celje 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Celje just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Olimpija Ljubljana 34%, draw 28%, Celje 37%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Olimpija Ljubljana v CeljeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Olimpija Ljubljana win34%

Draw28%

Celje win37%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 13

VenueStadion Stozice

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Olimpija Ljubljana

Celje

12Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · 1. SNL

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	12	+3	18
6	Celje	11	+1	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · celje winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

37% The market37%

Us37%

~~Market~~37%

We make Celje a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Olimpija Ljubljana v Celje~~1.28 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in 1. SNL this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 16~~4 v 6

~~The market · Celje win~~37% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Celje win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olimpija Ljubljana win	34%	36%	−2
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Celje win	37%	37%	0
Over 2.5 goals	49%	51%	−2
Both teams to score	54%	56%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	74%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	31%	−4
Olimpija Ljubljana or draw	63%	63%	0
Olimpija Ljubljana clean sheet	26%	–	–
Celje clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 8.5 8.8 6.6 3.0 1 8.3 13.3 8.2 3.7 2 5.9 7.8 5.3 2.4 3 2.6 3.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olimpija Ljubljana down, Celje across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 948 1. SNL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Olimpija Ljubljana at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Celje away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Olimpija Ljubljana, 1.35 for Celje. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CEL 1–0 OLI · CEL 2–0 OLI · OLI 3–1 CEL · OLI 1–0 CEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. SNL this season · since 29 Aug

OLIMPIJA LJUBLJANA

DWWLDW0–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 1–0

CELJE

WLLDWD2–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maribor	12	+12	24
2	Koper	12	+8	22
3	Bravo	12	+1	19
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	12	+3	18
5	Nafta	12	+2	17
6	Celje	11	+1	16
7	Aluminij	12	+3	13
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	12	−10	11
9	Mura	12	−11	11
10	Radomlje	11	−9	7