Nafta v Bravo prediction · 1. SNL

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Nafta 1–0 Bravo BRAVO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bravo win~~46%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.796

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.556

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bravo win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bravo 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 29–25–46
1′KICK-OFF Nafta v Bravo
2′Little has changed for our model: Bravo 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 29–25–46
15′PENALTY MISSED · 16' Bravo
22′Bravo ahead on 16′ through S. Nuhanovic. 0–0. 0–0 · 28–29–43
25′Bravo ahead on 16′ through S. Nuhanovic. 0–0. 0–0 · 27–30–42
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Nafta 1–0 Bravo
34′⚽ GOAL · 35' Nafta 1–0 Bravo
40′A. Marosa scores for Nafta on 35′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 61–25–14
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Bravo win: 46% at kick-off, 14% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Nafta win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Bravo win 14%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Bravo win: 46% at kick-off, 42% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Bravo win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Nafta win 27%)
42′A. Marosa scores for Nafta on 35′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 62–25–13
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Bravo win: 46% at kick-off, 14% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Nafta win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Bravo win 14%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Bravo win: 46% at kick-off, 42% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Bravo win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Nafta win 27%)
45′SECOND HALF Nafta 1–0 Bravo
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Bravo win: 46% at kick-off, 13% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Nafta win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Bravo win 13%)
49′PENALTY MISSED · 16' S. Nuhanovic · Bravo
49′⚽ GOAL · 35' Nafta 1–0 Bravo · A. Marosa
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Bravo · On: R. Parra · Off: M. Olanrewaju
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Bravo · On: M. Malensek · Off: J. Arinze
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Bravo · On: A. Jakupovic · Off: M. Tucic
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Nafta
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Bravo · On: A. Pecar · Off: O. Mazie
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Bravo · On: I. Halilou · Off: J. Brunnhofer
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Nafta · On: L. Pihler · Off: M. Vidnyanszky
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Nafta · On: D. Bobson · Off: A. Marosa
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Bravo
FTFULL TIME Nafta 1–0 Bravo
FTNafta 1–0 Bravo · Bravo win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Nafta win28%

Draw27%

Bravo win46%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

RefereeD. Sabanagic

Line-ups

Nafta

Bravo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Nafta

Bravo

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Bravo	10	+2	18
7	Nafta	10	+1	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Nafta

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Erjavsek

2 R. Pirtovsek

98 A. Dragoner

20 A. Ferreira

33 L. Poredos

17 A. Marosa

21 S. Omrani

18 A. Pihler

41 K. Lavrencic

7 J. Zorica

30 M. Vidnyanszky

Coach · Gonzalo Escudero

Substitutes

89 · E. Nemeth

8 · M. Ogwuche

99 · A. Micic

90 · U. Jamiu

23 · L. Kambic

16 · D. Bobson

19 · A. Sarr

10 · L. Pihler

Bravo

Formation not confirmed

77 M. Rozman

68 M. Nzuzi

4 J. Brunnhofer

21 L. Stravs

28 M. Olanrewaju

24 G. Jovan

6 J. Ficko

8 S. Nuhanovic

17 J. Arinze

11 O. Mazie

33 M. Tucic

Coach · Ales Arnol

Substitutes

22 · B. Maticic

40 · M. Malensek

75 · A. Pecar

2 · R. Parra

95 · M. Fogec

5 · I. Halilou

9 · A. Jakupovic

Our number · bravo winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

46% The market35%

Us46%

~~Market~~35%

We make Bravo a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bravo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 46% now. The market has gone from 36% to 35% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nafta win	28%	39%	−11
Draw	27%	26%	0
Bravo win	46%	35%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	52%	57%	−5
Both teams to score	56%	61%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	77%	79%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	37%	−7
Nafta or draw	54%	65%	−11
Nafta clean sheet	21%	–	–
Bravo clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.4 9.0 7.8 4.2 1 6.5 12.5 9.0 4.8 2 4.5 6.9 5.4 2.8 3 2.8 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nafta down, Bravo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 941 1. SNL matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 1.80 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nafta at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Bravo away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Nafta, 1.59 for Bravo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~BRA 0–3 NAF · NAF 0–1 BRA · BRA 1–1 NAF · NAF 0–1 BRA

Form · last six in 1. SNL

NAFTA

LLLWWL1–3 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

BRAVO

DLWDWW0–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maribor	10	+11	20
2	Koper	11	+3	19
3	Bravo	10	+2	18
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	11	+2	15
5	Celje	10	+1	15
6	Aluminij	11	+4	13
7	Nafta	10	+1	13
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	10	−4	11
9	Mura	11	−11	10
10	Radomlje	10	−9	6