Nafta v Aluminij prediction · 1. SNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NaftaDrawAluminij

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Nafta 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nafta are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nafta 39%, draw 28%, Aluminij 33%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Nafta v AluminijBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Nafta win39%

Draw28%

Aluminij win33%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nafta

Aluminij

5Days since last match5

Last match: 23 Oct · the Slovenian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Nafta	12	+2	17
7	Aluminij	12	+3	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nafta winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

39% The market38%

Us39%

~~Market~~38%

We make Nafta a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nafta v Aluminij~~1.42 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in 1. SNL this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 13~~5 v 7

~~The market · Nafta win~~38% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nafta win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nafta win	39%	38%	+1
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Aluminij win	33%	35%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	52%	−1
Both teams to score	55%	56%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	74%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	31%	−2
Nafta or draw	67%	65%	+2
Nafta clean sheet	28%	–	–
Aluminij clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 7.9 7.6 5.6 2.4 1 8.5 13.0 7.7 3.3 2 6.7 8.5 5.4 2.3 3 3.2 4.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nafta down, Aluminij across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 948 1. SNL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nafta at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Aluminij away: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Nafta, 1.29 for Aluminij. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ALU 1–1 NAF · ALU 1–1 NAF · NAF 1–3 ALU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. SNL this season · since 30 Aug

NAFTA

LWWLWD2–3 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–0

ALUMINIJ

LDWDLL0–2 · 0–0 · 6–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maribor	12	+12	24
2	Koper	12	+8	22
3	Bravo	12	+1	19
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	12	+3	18
5	Nafta	12	+2	17
6	Celje	11	+1	16
7	Aluminij	12	+3	13
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	12	−10	11
9	Mura	12	−11	11
10	Radomlje	11	−9	7