Mura v Nafta prediction · 1. SNL

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:11

Mura 0–0 Nafta MURA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mura win~~38%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.793

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.796

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mura win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mura was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–34
1′KICK-OFF Mura v Nafta
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Mura win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Mura 0–0 Nafta
45′SECOND HALF Mura 0–0 Nafta
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 28–46–26
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Mura win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Mura
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Mura · On: L. Bobicanec · Off: N. Kasalo
60′We said Mura at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–50–24
64′We said Mura at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–53–22
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Mura
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Nafta
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Mura · On: B. Dimitrov · Off: K. Kurtovic
72′We said Mura at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–63–18
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Mura win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
78′We said Mura at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–72–13
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Nafta · On: L. Pihler · Off: S. Omrani
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Mura
83′We said Mura at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–82–9
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Mura win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Mura · On: A. Korosec · Off: Z. Petrovic
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Nafta · On: U. Jamiu · Off: A. Marosa
90′We said Mura at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
93′Full time, 0–0. We called Mura at 38% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
93′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Mura · On: F. Jevsenak · Off: S. Butic
FTFULL TIME Mura 0–0 Nafta
FTMura 0–0 Nafta · Mura win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Mura just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Mura 38%, draw 27%, Nafta 34%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Mura v NaftaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Mura win38%

Draw27%

Nafta win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueMestni stadion Fazanerija

RefereeM. Tozan

Line-ups

Mura

Nafta

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mura

Nafta

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. SNL

Last match: 11 Oct · 1. SNL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Nafta	11	+2	16
9	Mura	11	−11	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Mura

Formation not confirmed

52 M. Dajcar

77 D. Oroian

24 L. Kitin

3 A. Zeljkovic

56 M. Matic

21 Z. Petrovic

18 A. Zalaznik

10 N. Kouter

47 S. Butic

30 K. Kurtovic

7 N. Kasalo

Coach · Mitja Morec

Substitutes

33 · Z. Fermisek

17 · K. Trdin

5 · I. Jelic

2 · F. Sana

88 · A. Korosec

23 · J. Kovacic

6 · F. Jevsenak

49 · P. Pfeifer

8 · L. Bobicanec

71 · B. Dimitrov

9 · M. Ascic

99 · R. Caks

Nafta

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Erjavsek

20 A. Ferreira

2 R. Pirtovsek

98 A. Dragoner

33 L. Poredos

21 S. Omrani

18 A. Pihler

41 K. Lavrencic

7 J. Zorica

30 M. Vidnyanszky

17 A. Marosa

Coach · Gonzalo Escudero

Substitutes

89 · E. Nemeth

23 · L. Kambic

99 · A. Micic

11 · A. Jasaragic

8 · M. Ogwuche

10 · L. Pihler

90 · U. Jamiu

19 · A. Sarr

16 · D. Bobson

Our number · mura winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

38% The market43%

Us38%

~~Market~~43%

We make Mura a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mura v Nafta~~1.40 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in 1. SNL this season · since 21 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 16~~9 v 5

~~The market · Mura win~~43% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mura win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mura win	38%	43%	−5
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Nafta win	34%	30%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	50%	51%	−1
Both teams to score	55%	56%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	74%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	30%	−1
Mura or draw	66%	70%	−4
Mura clean sheet	28%	–	–
Nafta clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 7.8 8.0 5.7 2.5 1 8.6 12.9 7.8 3.4 2 6.6 8.4 5.4 2.4 3 3.1 3.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mura down, Nafta across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 944 1. SNL matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mura at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Nafta away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Mura, 1.30 for Nafta. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~NAF 5–2 MUR · MUR 1–2 NAF · NAF 4–2 MUR · MUR 0–0 NAF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. SNL this season · since 21 Aug

MURA

LLDLDD0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–6 · 0–0 · 3–3

NAFTA

LLWWLW0–1 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maribor	11	+12	23
2	Koper	11	+3	19
3	Olimpija Ljubljana	12	+3	18
4	Bravo	11	+1	18
5	Nafta	11	+2	16
6	Celje	10	+1	15
7	Aluminij	12	+3	13
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	11	−5	11
9	Mura	11	−11	10
10	Radomlje	10	−9	6