Maribor v Olimpija Ljubljana prediction · 1. SNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MariborDrawOlimpija Ljubljana

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Maribor 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maribor are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Maribor 43%, draw 29%, Olimpija Ljubljana 28%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Maribor v Olimpija LjubljanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Maribor win43%

Draw29%

Olimpija Ljubljana win28%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueLjudski vrt

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maribor

Olimpija Ljubljana

13Days since last match15

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. SNL

Last match: 16 Oct · 1. SNL

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maribor winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Maribor a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maribor v Olimpija Ljubljana~~1.35 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in 1. SNL this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 24 v 18~~1 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maribor win	43%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Olimpija Ljubljana win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Maribor or draw	72%	–	–
Maribor clean sheet	36%	–	–
Olimpija Ljubljana clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 10.5 8.5 4.9 1 11.4 13.7 6.5 2.3 2 8.4 8.5 4.4 3 3.8 3.9 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maribor down, Olimpija Ljubljana across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 948 1. SNL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maribor at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Olimpija Ljubljana away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Maribor, 1.03 for Olimpija Ljubljana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~OLI 1–1 MAR · OLI 0–0 MAR · MAR 1–1 OLI · OLI 1–0 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. SNL this season · since 29 Aug

MARIBOR

WDWDWD3–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–0

OLIMPIJA LJUBLJANA

DWWLDW0–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maribor	12	+12	24
2	Koper	12	+8	22
3	Bravo	12	+1	19
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	12	+3	18
5	Nafta	12	+2	17
6	Celje	11	+1	16
7	Aluminij	12	+3	13
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	12	−10	11
9	Mura	12	−11	11
10	Radomlje	11	−9	7