Maribor v Celje prediction · 1. SNL

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31

Maribor 0–0 Celje MARIBOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maribor win~~39%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.816

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.833

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maribor win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Maribor 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–26–34
1′KICK-OFF Maribor v Celje
21′We said Maribor at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–21–63
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Maribor 0–1 Celje
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Maribor win: 39% at kick-off, 16% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Celje win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Maribor win 16%)
22′A goal for Celje on 22′. 0–0 · 37–30–33
23′GOAL DISALLOWED · 23' Celje
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Maribor win: 39% at kick-off, 37% now
28′A goal for Maribor on 28′. 0–0 · 36–32–32
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Celje win 30%)
45′HALF-TIME Maribor 0–0 Celje
45′SECOND HALF Maribor 0–0 Celje
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Celje
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 29–44–27
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Maribor win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
61′We said Maribor at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–48–25
66′We said Maribor at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–53–22
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Celje · On: B. Kramer · Off: A. Kucys
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Maribor · On: B. Feta · Off: Z. Repas
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Maribor · On: Z. Jevsenak · Off: C. Goncalves
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Maribor win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Celje
79′We said Maribor at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–72–13
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Celje · On: A. Dionkou · Off: M. Ivansek
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Celje · On: V. Tusha · Off: B. Verbic
84′We said Maribor at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Maribor win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Maribor · On: V. Koderman · Off: C. Bumbic
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Maribor · On: D. Vizinger · Off: L. Zahovic
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Maribor · On: N. Viher · Off: N. Osterc
91′We said Maribor at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Maribor 0–0 Celje
FTMaribor 0–0 Celje · Maribor win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Maribor just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Maribor 39%, draw 26%, Celje 35%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Maribor v CeljeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Maribor win39%

Draw26%

Celje win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueLjudski vrt

RefereeA. Matkovic

Line-ups

Maribor

Celje

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maribor

Celje

7Days since last match3

Last match: 11 Oct · 1. SNL

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Maribor

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Jug

3 C. Bumbic

6 B. Mbondo

7 T. Cipot

8 C. Goncalves

10 Z. Repas

23 Z. Karnicnik

25 M. Blazic

38 N. Osterc

70 I. Tshipamba

79 L. Zahovic

Coach · Darko Milanic

Substitutes

43 · T. Handanovic

55 · M. Spanring

50 · L. Vidmar

24 · A. Zabukovec

21 · V. Koderman

4 · N. Viher

5 · Z. Jevsenak

14 · J. Seri

15 · E. Taylor

99 · B. Feta

29 · D. Vizinger

11 · A. Reghba

Celje

Formation not confirmed

1 Z. Leban

11 M. Avdyli

6 A. Tutyskinas

44 L. Bejger

77 M. Ivansek

19 M. Zabukovnik

8 M. Kvesic

10 S. Seslar

91 Y. Dukuly

7 B. Verbic

47 A. Kucys

Coach · Zoran Zeljkovic

Substitutes

21 · S. Sluga

20 · A. Dionkou

2 · P. Sirvys

33 · L. Koutris

15 · Z. Zuzek

3 · D. Vuklisevic

13 · P. Daniel

4 · D. Hrka

27 · I. Calusic

32 · T. Letonja

25 · V. Tusha

9 · B. Kramer

Our number · maribor winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market43%

Us39%

~~Market~~43%

We make Maribor a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maribor v Celje~~1.51 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in 1. SNL this season · since 23 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 23 v 15~~1 v 6

~~The market · Maribor win~~43% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Maribor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maribor win	39%	43%	−4
Draw	26%	26%	0
Celje win	35%	31%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	55%	57%	−2
Both teams to score	59%	60%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	33%	35%	−2
Maribor or draw	65%	69%	−4
Maribor clean sheet	25%	–	–
Celje clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.5 6.8 5.4 2.5 1 7.4 12.2 7.9 3.7 2 6.2 8.5 5.9 2.8 3 3.1 4.3 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maribor down, Celje across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 946 1. SNL matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maribor at home: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Celje away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Maribor, 1.40 for Celje. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CEL 1–1 MAR · CEL 1–0 MAR · MAR 3–3 CEL · CEL 3–0 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. SNL this season · since 23 Aug

MARIBOR

WWDWDW3–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 2–1

CELJE

LWLLDW1–4 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maribor	11	+12	23
2	Koper	11	+3	19
3	Bravo	12	+1	19
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	12	+3	18
5	Nafta	12	+2	17
6	Celje	10	+1	15
7	Aluminij	12	+3	13
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	11	−5	11
9	Mura	12	−11	11
10	Radomlje	11	−9	7