Koper v Maribor prediction · 1. SNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KoperDrawMaribor

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Koper 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Koper are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Koper 39%, draw 28%, Maribor 33%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Koper v MariborBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Koper win39%

Draw28%

Maribor win33%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueBonifika

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Koper

Maribor

4Days since last match9

Last match: 23 Oct · the Slovenian Cup

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. SNL

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · koper winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

39% The market37%

Us39%

~~Market~~37%

We make Koper a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Koper v Maribor~~1.40 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in 1. SNL this season · since 28 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 22 v 24~~2 v 1

~~The market · Koper win~~37% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Koper win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Koper win	39%	37%	+2
Draw	28%	28%	0
Maribor win	33%	36%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	50%	52%	−2
Both teams to score	55%	57%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	75%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	28%	32%	−4
Koper or draw	67%	64%	+3
Koper clean sheet	28%	–	–
Maribor clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.0 7.8 5.6 2.4 1 8.6 13.1 7.7 3.4 2 6.7 8.4 5.4 2.3 3 3.2 4.0 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Koper down, Maribor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 948 1. SNL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Koper at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Maribor away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Koper, 1.29 for Maribor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MAR 2–0 KOP · KOP 3–1 MAR · MAR 2–0 KOP · KOP 1–0 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. SNL this season · since 28 Aug

KOPER

WWLWDW1–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 5–0

MARIBOR

WDWDWD3–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maribor	12	+12	24
2	Koper	12	+8	22
3	Bravo	12	+1	19
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	12	+3	18
5	Nafta	12	+2	17
6	Celje	11	+1	16
7	Aluminij	12	+3	13
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	12	−10	11
9	Mura	12	−11	11
10	Radomlje	11	−9	7