Koper v Brinje-Grosuplje prediction · 1. SNL

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Koper 5–0 Brinje-Grosuplje KOPER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Koper win~~63%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.206

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.278

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Koper win at 63%.
1′Much as we predicted: Koper was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 63–21–16
1′KICK-OFF Koper v Brinje-Grosuplje
4′We published Koper at 63%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–10–6
4′Koper score on 4′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 84–10–6
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Koper 1–0 Brinje-Grosuplje
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Koper win: 63% at kick-off, 84% now
8′We published Koper at 63%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–4–1
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Koper 2–0 Brinje-Grosuplje
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Koper win: 63% at kick-off, 94% now
9′Koper find the net on 9′. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–4–1
10′We published Koper at 63%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Koper
45′SECOND HALF Koper 2–0 Brinje-Grosuplje
46′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 2–0 · 96–3–1
46′SUBSTITUTION · 42' Brinje-Grosuplje · On: V. Vlahovic · Off: Z. Mesko
46′SUBSTITUTION · 42' Brinje-Grosuplje · On: G. Kurez · Off: J. Kurtic
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Koper 3–0 Brinje-Grosuplje
47′HALF-TIME Koper 2–0 Brinje-Grosuplje
48′A goal for Koper on 47′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–0–0
48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Koper
49′We published Koper at 63%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
49′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Koper 4–0 Brinje-Grosuplje
50′Koper score on 50′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Koper · On: L. Stulac · Off: D. Bangaly
57′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Brinje-Grosuplje · On: J. Kovac · Off: N. Jovicevic
57′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Brinje-Grosuplje · On: N. Koren · Off: H. Vuckic
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Koper · On: N. Simon · Off: J. Ilicic
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Koper · On: C. Diakite · Off: D. Pejicic
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Koper · On: B. Irabor · Off: B. Ndiaye
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Brinje-Grosuplje
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Brinje-Grosuplje · On: A. Zlatkov · Off: A. Kurtovic
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Brinje-Grosuplje
80′PENALTY MISSED · 79' Koper
83′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
83′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Koper · On: B. Adrovic · Off: I. Matondo
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Koper 5–0 Brinje-Grosuplje
84′Koper find the net on 84′. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' D. Ivkic · Brinje-Grosuplje
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Brinje-Grosuplje
91′6 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 6–0 · 100–0–0
91′A red card for Brinje-Grosuplje on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 6–0 · 100–0–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Koper 6–0 Brinje-Grosuplje
92′A goal for Koper on 90′ — 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
92′Full time, 5–0. We called Koper at 63% — that one lands. 5–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Koper 5–0 Brinje-Grosuplje
FTKoper 5–0 Brinje-Grosuplje · Koper win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Koper are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Koper 63%, draw 21%, Brinje-Grosuplje 16%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Koper v Brinje-GrosupljeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Koper win63%

Draw21%

Brinje-Grosuplje win16%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueBonifika

RefereeD. Smajc

Line-ups

Koper

Brinje-Grosuplje

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Koper

Brinje-Grosuplje

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. SNL

Last match: 11 Oct · 1. SNL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Koper	11	+3	19
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	11	−5	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Koper

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Bas

47 A. Roncal

69 B. Negouai

5 F. Backulja

18 G. Agyemang

25 D. Bangaly

45 I. Matondo

72 J. Ilicic

79 D. Pejicic

99 K. Manseri

8 B. Ndiaye

Coach · Milan Andjelkovic

Substitutes

90 · E. Piana

16 · B. P. Kerma

33 · A. Marinic

29 · L. Gucek

86 · S. Surdanovic

4 · L. Stulac

22 · C. Diakite

26 · B. Adrovic

11 · N. Simon

19 · R. Beric

9 · B. Irabor

20 · L. Oluwaseun

Brinje-Grosuplje

Formation not confirmed

25 J. Zrnec

49 A. Kurtovic

72 D. Ivkic

28 M. Kavcic

24 Z. Mesko

17 T. Levanic

27 J. Kurtic

19 S. Matjaz

10 N. Jovicevic

2 K. Benkic

9 H. Vuckic

Coach · Goran Markovic

Substitutes

1 · T. Strasberger

5 · A. Zlatkov

7 · V. Hojc

11 · N. Zrnec

14 · J. Kovac

21 · E. Milosevic

22 · N. Koren

30 · R. Young

37 · G. Kurez

77 · V. Vlahovic

Our number · koper winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

63% The market57%

Us63%

~~Market~~57%

We make Koper a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Koper v Brinje-Grosuplje~~2.16 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in 1. SNL this season · since 21 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 19 v 11~~2 v 8

~~The market · Koper win~~57% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Koper win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Koper win	63%	57%	+6
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Brinje-Grosuplje win	16%	19%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	60%	54%	+6
Both teams to score	55%	54%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	77%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	38%	34%	+4
Koper or draw	84%	81%	+3
Koper clean sheet	38%	–	–
Brinje-Grosuplje clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.0%

0123450 5.2 3.7 2.2 1 8.8 9.8 4.5 2 10.0 9.6 4.7 3 7.2 6.8 3.3 4 4.0 3.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Koper down, Brinje-Grosuplje across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 946 1. SNL matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Koper at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Brinje-Grosuplje away: 1.00 scored, 2.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.16 goals for Koper, 0.98 for Brinje-Grosuplje. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BRI 1–1 KOP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. SNL this season · since 21 Aug

KOPER

WWWLWD1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 3–3

BRINJE-GROSUPLJE

LWLLWL2–4 · 4–1 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maribor	11	+12	23
2	Koper	11	+3	19
3	Bravo	12	+1	19
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	12	+3	18
5	Nafta	12	+2	17
6	Celje	10	+1	15
7	Aluminij	12	+3	13
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	11	−5	11
9	Mura	12	−11	11
10	Radomlje	11	−9	7