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Celje v Aluminij

Celje

1–0Full time

Aluminij

1. SNL · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 19:03

Celje 1–0 Aluminij CELJE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Celje win~~67%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.169

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.240

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Celje win at 67%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Celje 67% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 67–18–15
8′Little has changed for our model: Celje 67% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 66–19–15
30′M. Avdyli scores for Celje on 10′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–12–4
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Celje win: 67% at kick-off, 66% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Celje win: 67% at kick-off, 84% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Celje win: 67% at kick-off, 66% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Celje win: 67% at kick-off, 84% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Celje win: 67% at kick-off, 66% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Celje win: 67% at kick-off, 84% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Celje win: 67% at kick-off, 84% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Celje win: 67% at kick-off, 66% now
37′M. Avdyli scores for Celje on 10′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–12–4
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Celje win: 67% at kick-off, 66% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Celje win: 67% at kick-off, 84% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Celje win: 67% at kick-off, 84% now
45′SECOND HALF Celje 1–0 Aluminij
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Celje win: 67% at kick-off, 84% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Celje win: 67% at kick-off, 84% now
54′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Aluminij
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Celje · On: M. Zabukovnik · Off: L. Ticic
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Celje · On: Z. Zuzek · Off: M. Ivansek
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Aluminij · On: R. Ramsak · Off: B. Susso
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Aluminij · On: D. Zajsek · Off: A. Bekavac
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Celje · On: V. Tusha · Off: M. Kvesic
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Celje · On: B. Kramer · Off: A. Kucys
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Aluminij · On: M. Mladenovic · Off: P. Petrisko
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' M. Avdyli · Celje
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Celje · On: P. Daniel · Off: I. Calusic
82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Celje
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Aluminij · On: A. Bloudek · Off: B. Osuji
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Aluminij · On: I. Svrznjak · Off: M. Vrbanec
91′🟨 YELLOW · 92' R. Schaubach · Aluminij
FTFULL TIME Celje 1–0 Aluminij
FTCelje 1–0 Aluminij · Celje win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Celje win67%

Draw19%

Aluminij win14%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:30

Referee · A. Jeric

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Celje

Formation not confirmed

1 Z. Leban

11 M. Avdyli

44 L. Bejger

6 A. Tutyskinas

77 M. Ivansek

14 L. Ticic

27 I. Calusic

10 S. Seslar

8 M. Kvesic

91 Y. Dukuly

47 A. Kucys

Coach · Zoran Zeljkovic

Substitutes

21 · S. Sluga

20 · A. Dionkou

33 · L. Koutris

3 · D. Vuklisevic

15 · Z. Zuzek

4 · D. Hrka

13 · P. Daniel

19 · M. Zabukovnik

32 · T. Letonja

25 · V. Tusha

7 · B. Verbic

9 · B. Kramer

Aluminij

Formation not confirmed

31 F. Raduha

12 A. Bekavac

5 M. Boben

6 D. Simunic

4 R. Schaubach

32 V. Tezak

14 T. Jagic

44 P. Petrisko

13 M. Vrbanec

11 B. Osuji

45 B. Susso

Coach · Jure Arsic

Substitutes

1 · A. Mrezar

66 · L. Tomazic

3 · D. Zajsek

23 · E. Kramberger

18 · S. Rogina

25 · M. Bajraj

10 · R. Ramsak

9 · A. Bloudek

7 · M. Mladenovic

20 · I. Svrznjak

27 · M. Blazic

24 · T. Modric

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Celje

Formation not confirmed

1 Z. Leban

11 M. Avdyli

44 L. Bejger

6 A. Tutyskinas

77 M. Ivansek

14 L. Ticic

27 I. Calusic

10 S. Seslar

8 M. Kvesic

91 Y. Dukuly

47 A. Kucys

Coach · Zoran Zeljkovic

Substitutes

21 · S. Sluga

20 · A. Dionkou

33 · L. Koutris

3 · D. Vuklisevic

15 · Z. Zuzek

4 · D. Hrka

13 · P. Daniel

19 · M. Zabukovnik

32 · T. Letonja

25 · V. Tusha

7 · B. Verbic

9 · B. Kramer

Aluminij

Formation not confirmed

31 F. Raduha

12 A. Bekavac

5 M. Boben

6 D. Simunic

4 R. Schaubach

32 V. Tezak

14 T. Jagic

44 P. Petrisko

13 M. Vrbanec

11 B. Osuji

45 B. Susso

Coach · Jure Arsic

Substitutes

1 · A. Mrezar

66 · L. Tomazic

3 · D. Zajsek

23 · E. Kramberger

18 · S. Rogina

25 · M. Bajraj

10 · R. Ramsak

9 · A. Bloudek

7 · M. Mladenovic

20 · I. Svrznjak

27 · M. Blazic

24 · T. Modric

Our number · celje winPublished 10 Oct 16:37

67% The market60%

Us67%

~~Market~~60%

We make Celje a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.0.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Celje win	67%	60%	+7
Draw	19%	22%	−2
Aluminij win	14%	18%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	66%	62%	+5
Both teams to score	59%	59%	0
Over 1.5 goals	86%	81%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	45%	41%	+3
Celje or draw	86%	82%	+4
Celje clean sheet	36%	–	–
Aluminij clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 4.1 2.7 1 7.2 8.7 4.1 2 9.3 9.4 4.8 3 7.4 7.5 3.8 4 4.5 4.5 2.3 5 2.2 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Celje down, Aluminij across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 938 1. SNL matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

13 previous meetings, 3.54 goals a meeting; 10 of 13 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Celje at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Aluminij away: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.40 goals for Celje, 1.03 for Aluminij. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

13 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.54

~~Over 2.5~~10 of 13

~~Both scored~~8 of 13

~~Last meetings~~ALU 0–2 CEL · CEL 5–0 ALU · ALU 2–1 CEL · CEL 2–1 ALU

Form · last six in 1. SNL

CELJE

WLWLLD3–1 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–0

ALUMINIJ

WLLDWD4–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 6–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maribor	10	+11	20
2	Koper	10	+3	18
3	Bravo	10	+2	18
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	10	+2	14
5	Aluminij	10	+5	13
6	Nafta	10	+1	13
7	Celje	9	0	12
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	10	−4	11
9	Mura	10	−11	9
10	Radomlje	9	−9	5