Brinje-Grosuplje v Maribor prediction · 1. SNL

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Brinje-Grosuplje 1–2 Maribor MARIBOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maribor win~~56%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.285

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.286

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maribor win at 56%.
0′Much as we predicted: Maribor was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 20–22–58
1′Much as we predicted: Maribor was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 20–22–58
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Maribor win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Brinje-Grosuplje win 20%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Maribor win: 56% at kick-off, 17% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Brinje-Grosuplje win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Maribor win 17%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Maribor win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
46′44′ and it is 1–0: H. Vuckic on the scoresheet for Brinje-Grosuplje. 1–0 · 55–28–17
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Maribor win: 56% at kick-off, 17% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Brinje-Grosuplje win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Maribor win 17%)
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Maribor win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Maribor win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Brinje-Grosuplje win 20%)
46′⚽ GOAL · 47' Brinje-Grosuplje 1–0 Maribor
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Brinje-Grosuplje 1–1 Maribor · H. Vuckic
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Maribor win: 56% at kick-off, 17% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Brinje-Grosuplje win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Maribor win 17%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Maribor win: 56% at kick-off, 17% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Brinje-Grosuplje win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Maribor win 17%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Maribor win: 56% at kick-off, 17% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Brinje-Grosuplje win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Maribor win 17%)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Maribor win: 56% at kick-off, 17% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Brinje-Grosuplje win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Maribor win 17%)
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Brinje-Grosuplje
64′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Brinje-Grosuplje
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Brinje-Grosuplje 1–2 Maribor · T. Cipot
68′⚽ GOAL · 69' Brinje-Grosuplje 1–2 Maribor
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Brinje-Grosuplje · On: J. Kovac · Off: K. Benkic
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Brinje-Grosuplje · On: S. Matjaz · Off: H. Vuckic
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Brinje-Grosuplje · On: N. Koren · Off: A. Kurtovic
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Maribor · On: B. Feta · Off: Z. Jevsenak
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Maribor · On: E. Taylor · Off: C. Goncalves
81′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Maribor
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Brinje-Grosuplje · On: V. Vlahovic · Off: M. Roric
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Brinje-Grosuplje · On: V. Vlahovic · Off: M. Roric
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Maribor · On: J. Seri · Off: J. Mlakar
89′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Maribor
FTFULL TIME Brinje-Grosuplje 1–2 Maribor
FTBrinje-Grosuplje 1–2 Maribor · Maribor win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Brinje-Grosuplje win20%

Draw24%

Maribor win56%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:30

VenueNogometni park Brinje

RefereeZ. Jazbec

Line-ups

Brinje-Grosuplje

Maribor

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Brinje-Grosuplje

Maribor

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maribor	10	+11	20
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	10	−4	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Brinje-Grosuplje

Formation not confirmed

25 J. Zrnec

24 Z. Mesko

2 K. Benkic

49 A. Kurtovic

72 D. Ivkic

28 M. Kavcic

17 T. Levanic

27 J. Kurtic

8 M. Roric

10 N. Jovicevic

9 H. Vuckic

Coach · Goran Markovic

Substitutes

1 · T. Strasberger

5 · A. Zlatkov

7 · V. Hojc

11 · N. Zrnec

14 · J. Kovac

19 · S. Matjaz

21 · E. Milosevic

22 · N. Koren

30 · R. Young

37 · G. Kurez

77 · V. Vlahovic

Maribor

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Jug

5 Z. Jevsenak

6 B. Mbondo

7 T. Cipot

8 C. Goncalves

17 J. Mlakar

21 V. Koderman

23 Z. Karnicnik

25 M. Blazic

38 N. Osterc

70 I. Tshipamba

Coach · Darko Milanic

Substitutes

39 · I. Lainovic

43 · T. Handanovic

3 · C. Bumbic

11 · A. Reghba

14 · J. Seri

15 · E. Taylor

24 · A. Zabukovec

29 · D. Vizinger

50 · L. Vidmar

55 · M. Spanring

79 · L. Zahovic

99 · B. Feta

Our number · maribor winPublished 11 Oct 16:29

56% The market56%

Us56%

~~Market~~56%

We make Maribor a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · maribor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 54% to 56% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brinje-Grosuplje win	20%	19%	+1
Draw	24%	24%	−1
Maribor win	56%	56%	0
Over 2.5 goals	56%	53%	+3
Both teams to score	55%	53%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	76%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	34%	33%	+1
Brinje-Grosuplje or draw	44%	44%	0
Brinje-Grosuplje clean sheet	15%	–	–
Maribor clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 6.3 9.3 9.5 6.2 3.0 1 4.7 11.1 9.5 6.0 2.9 2 3.0 5.4 4.9 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brinje-Grosuplje down, Maribor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 941 1. SNL matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brinje-Grosuplje at home: 1.80 scored, 1.40 conceded a game (last 5). Maribor away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Brinje-Grosuplje, 1.91 for Maribor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~MAR 3–0 BRI

Form · last six in 1. SNL

BRINJE-GROSUPLJE

LLWLLW1–2 · 2–4 · 4–1 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–1

MARIBOR

DWWDWD1–1 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maribor	10	+11	20
2	Koper	11	+3	19
3	Bravo	10	+2	18
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	11	+2	15
5	Celje	10	+1	15
6	Aluminij	11	+4	13
7	Nafta	10	+1	13
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	10	−4	11
9	Mura	11	−11	10
10	Radomlje	10	−9	6