Aluminij v Olimpija Ljubljana prediction · 1. SNL

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 19:02

Aluminij 0–1 Olimpija Ljubljana OLIMPIJA LJUBLJANA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Olimpija Ljubljana win~~47%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.414

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.384

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Olimpija Ljubljana win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Olimpija Ljubljana was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 26–26–48
1′KICK-OFF Aluminij v Olimpija Ljubljana
13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Aluminij
13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Olimpija Ljubljana
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Aluminij
45′HALF-TIME Aluminij 0–0 Olimpija Ljubljana
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Olimpija Ljubljana win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
46′SECOND HALF Aluminij 0–0 Olimpija Ljubljana
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Aluminij · On: D. Zajsek · Off: A. Bekavac
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Aluminij · On: I. Svrznjak · Off: H. Sorensen
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Olimpija Ljubljana win 36%)
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Olimpija Ljubljana
51′We said Olimpija Ljubljana at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 22–43–35
53′We said Olimpija Ljubljana at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 21–45–34
55′We expected about 2.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 23–40–38
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Aluminij
62′We said Olimpija Ljubljana at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 19–52–29
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Olimpija Ljubljana
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Olimpija Ljubljana win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
69′Olimpija Ljubljana find the net on 68′. 0–1. 0–1 · 2–14–84
69′We published Olimpija Ljubljana at 47%. Our model now makes it 84%. 0–1 · 2–14–84
69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Aluminij 0–1 Olimpija Ljubljana
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Olimpija Ljubljana win: 47% at kick-off, 84% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Olimpija Ljubljana win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
70′We published Olimpija Ljubljana at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Aluminij · On: M. Bajraj · Off: R. Ramsak
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Olimpija Ljubljana · On: L. Perea · Off: D. Mitrovski
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Aluminij · On: M. Mladenovic · Off: P. Petrisko
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Olimpija Ljubljana win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Aluminij
79′We published Olimpija Ljubljana at 47%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
86′We published Olimpija Ljubljana at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Olimpija Ljubljana win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Olimpija Ljubljana
94′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Aluminij · On: A. Bloudek · Off: T. Jagic
FTFULL TIME Aluminij 0–1 Olimpija Ljubljana
FTAluminij 0–1 Olimpija Ljubljana · Olimpija Ljubljana win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Olimpija Ljubljana are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aluminij 25%, draw 27%, Olimpija Ljubljana 47%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Aluminij v Olimpija LjubljanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Aluminij win25%

Draw27%

Olimpija Ljubljana win47%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueSportni park Aluminij

RefereeD. Halilovic

Line-ups

Aluminij

Olimpija Ljubljana

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aluminij

Olimpija Ljubljana

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. SNL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Olimpija Ljubljana	11	+2	15
7	Aluminij	11	+4	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Aluminij

Formation not confirmed

31 F. Raduha

12 A. Bekavac

5 M. Boben

6 D. Simunic

80 H. Sorensen

32 V. Tezak

14 T. Jagic

44 P. Petrisko

13 M. Vrbanec

11 B. Osuji

10 R. Ramsak

Coach · Jure Arsic

Substitutes

1 · A. Mrezar

66 · L. Tomazic

3 · D. Zajsek

23 · E. Kramberger

18 · S. Rogina

25 · M. Bajraj

45 · B. Susso

9 · A. Bloudek

7 · M. Mladenovic

20 · I. Svrznjak

27 · M. Blazic

24 · T. Modric

Olimpija Ljubljana

Formation not confirmed

26 M. Vidovsek

14 K. Bendra

30 J. Gorenc

15 M. Ristic

3 J. Urbancic

10 D. Mitrovski

34 A. Doffo

90 R. Miskovic

17 M. Cuni

9 D. Kojic

19 I. Tuci

Coach · Miso Brecko

Substitutes

22 · D. Pintol

6 · L. Perea

11 · F. Rose

99 · A. Marin

28 · Diga

8 · B. Lourenco

18 · M. Brest

24 · A. Tamm

33 · J. Govea

55 · M. Henjak

71 · T. Goga

79 · Y. Kallon

Our number · olimpija ljubljana winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 17:29 · locked at kick-off

47% The market49%

Us47%

~~Market~~49%

We make Olimpija Ljubljana a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aluminij v Olimpija Ljubljana~~1.05 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in 1. SNL this season · since 21 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 15~~7 v 5

~~The market · Olimpija Ljubljana win~~49% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Olimpija Ljubljana win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aluminij win	25%	24%	+1
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Olimpija Ljubljana win	47%	49%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	48%	52%	−4
Both teams to score	51%	55%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	74%	75%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	31%	−5
Aluminij or draw	53%	51%	+2
Aluminij clean sheet	22%	–	–
Olimpija Ljubljana clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.6 10.7 8.8 4.6 1 7.1 12.8 9.1 4.7 2 4.2 6.3 4.8 2.5 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aluminij down, Olimpija Ljubljana across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 943 1. SNL matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. SNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aluminij at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Olimpija Ljubljana away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Aluminij, 1.54 for Olimpija Ljubljana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~OLI 1–0 ALU · OLI 2–1 ALU · ALU 1–2 OLI · OLI 1–1 ALU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. SNL this season · since 21 Aug

ALUMINIJ

LLDWDL0–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 6–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

OLIMPIJA LJUBLJANA

WDWWLD1–0 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maribor	11	+12	23
2	Koper	11	+3	19
3	Bravo	11	+1	18
4	Nafta	11	+2	16
5	Olimpija Ljubljana	11	+2	15
6	Celje	10	+1	15
7	Aluminij	11	+4	13
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	11	−5	11
9	Mura	11	−11	10
10	Radomlje	10	−9	6