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Žilina v Dunajska Streda

Žilina

2–3Full time

Dunajska Streda

Super Liga · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31

Žilina 2–3 Dunajska Streda DUNAJSKA STREDA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dunajska Streda win~~44%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.467

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.462

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 40 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dunajska Streda win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Žilina v Dunajska Streda
2′Much as we predicted: Dunajska Streda was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 32–24–44
9′🟨 YELLOW · 9' S. Ouro · Dunajska Streda
22′We published Dunajska Streda at 44%. Our model now makes it 69%. 0–1 · 12–19–69
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Žilina 0–1 Dunajska Streda
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Dunajska Streda win: 44% at kick-off, 69% now
23′Dunajska Streda ahead on 22′ through M. Trusa. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–19–69
26′We published Dunajska Streda at 44%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 12–19–70
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 11–19–70
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Z. Trontelj · Dunajska Streda
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Žilina 1–1 Dunajska Streda
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Dunajska Streda win: 44% at kick-off, 39% now
35′D. Homet Ruiz scores for Žilina on 34′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 30–31–39
35′🟨 YELLOW · 33' K. Nemanic · Dunajska Streda
45′SECOND HALF Žilina 1–1 Dunajska Streda
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dunajska Streda · On: B. Csoka · Off: Rhyan Modesto
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Žilina 1–2 Dunajska Streda
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Dunajska Streda win: 44% at kick-off, 72% now
48′48′: G. Gagua on the scoresheet for Dunajska Streda, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 8–20–73
49′HALF-TIME Žilina 1–1 Dunajska Streda
50′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 27–38–35
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Žilina 2–2 Dunajska Streda
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Dunajska Streda win: 44% at kick-off, 35% now
51′Žilina level it on 51′ through K. Bari. 2–2. 2–2 · 27–39–34
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Dunajska Streda win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Dunajska Streda win 34%)
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' J. Bationo · Dunajska Streda
56′We said Dunajska Streda at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 2–2 · 25–42–32
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' K. Bari · Žilina
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Dunajska Streda · On: F. Diongue · Off: J. Bationo
63′We said Dunajska Streda at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 23–48–29
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' D. Homet Ruiz · Žilina
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Dunajska Streda · On: A. Sylla · Off: P. Owusu
70′We said Dunajska Streda at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 20–56–24
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Dunajska Streda win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Žilina · On: K. Bilalovic · Off: D. Homet Ruiz
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Žilina · On: A. Florea · Off: P. Ilko
71′We published Dunajska Streda at 44%. Our model now makes it 81%. 2–3 · 3–16–81
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Žilina 2–3 Dunajska Streda
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Dunajska Streda win: 44% at kick-off, 81% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Dunajska Streda win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 16%)
72′A. Ramadan scores for Dunajska Streda on 71′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 3–16–82
73′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 2–16–82
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Dunajska Streda win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
77′We published Dunajska Streda at 44%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–3 · 1–13–85
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' G. Gagua · Dunajska Streda
82′We published Dunajska Streda at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–3 · 1–10–90
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Dunajska Streda · On: T. Kacharaba · Off: G. Gagua
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Dunajska Streda · On: A. Gruber · Off: M. Trusa
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Žilina · On: M. Okal · Off: M. Roginic
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Žilina · On: F. Kosa · Off: M. Fasko
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' J. Minarik · Žilina
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Dunajska Streda win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Filipe · Dunajska Streda
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' A. Ramadan · Dunajska Streda
89′We published Dunajska Streda at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–3 · 0–5–95
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' A. Sylla · Dunajska Streda
97′Full time, 2–3. We called Dunajska Streda at 44% — that one lands. 2–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Žilina 2–3 Dunajska Streda
FTŽilina 2–3 Dunajska Streda · Dunajska Streda win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dunajska Streda are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Žilina 32%, draw 24%, Dunajska Streda 44%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Žilina v Dunajska StredaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Žilina win32%

Draw24%

Dunajska Streda win44%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

RefereeP. Ziemba

Line-ups

Žilina

Dunajska Streda

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Žilina

Dunajska Streda

4Days since last match8

Last match: 14 Oct · the Slovak Cup

Last match: 10 Oct · the Slovak Super Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Žilina

Formation not confirmed

31 D. Sipos

95 M. Roginic

25 J. Albin

17 J. Minarik

21 T. Hranica

66 M. Kacer

11 F. Bzdyl

20 K. Bari

23 M. Fasko

90 D. Homet Ruiz

16 P. Ilko

Coach · Vladimir Vesely

Substitutes

1 · J. Badzgon

14 · M. Svoboda

2 · M. Okal

19 · M. Traore

99 · K. Bilalovic

10 · A. Florea

6 · X. Adang

7 · F. Kosa

9 · P. Baleja

Dunajska Streda

Formation not confirmed

1 Filipe

23 Z. Trontelj

26 F. Blazek

81 K. Nemanic

49 Rhyan Modesto

17 J. Bationo

44 S. Ouro

30 P. Owusu

29 G. Gagua

10 A. Ramadan

46 M. Trusa

Coach · Robert Klauss

Substitutes

21 · P. Zivanovic

18 · S. Jukleroed

33 · T. Kacharaba

27 · F. Diongue

16 · P. Safranko

9 · A. Gruber

7 · U. Kabic

40 · B. Csoka

19 · A. Sylla

Our number · dunajska streda winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market45%

Us44%

~~Market~~45%

We make Dunajska Streda a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Žilina v Dunajska Streda~~1.43 – 1.73

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 21 v 23~~3 v 1

~~The market · Dunajska Streda win~~45% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dunajska Streda win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Žilina win	32%	31%	+1
Draw	24%	24%	0
Dunajska Streda win	44%	45%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	61%	64%	−3
Both teams to score	62%	66%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	82%	83%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	39%	45%	−6
Žilina or draw	56%	55%	+1
Žilina clean sheet	18%	–	–
Dunajska Streda clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.6 7.2 6.3 3.7 1 6.0 10.6 8.9 5.1 2.3 2 4.4 7.4 6.3 3.7 3 2.1 3.6 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Žilina down, Dunajska Streda across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,036 Super Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.9% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Žilina at home: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Dunajska Streda away: 3.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Žilina, 1.73 for Dunajska Streda. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DUN 3–1 ZIL · ZIL 3–1 DUN · ZIL 0–0 DUN · DUN 1–2 ZIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 Aug

ŽILINA

WWWDWD2–1 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 2–2

DUNAJSKA STREDA

WWWWDW5–0 · 6–1 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dunajska Streda	9	+23	23
2	Spartak Trnava	11	+10	21
3	Žilina	10	+6	21
4	Slovan Bratislava	10	+14	20
5	Podbrezová	10	−5	14
6	FK Košice	9	+3	13
7	Zemplín Michalovce	10	−5	13
8	Dukla Banská Bystrica	10	−11	10
9	Ružomberok	11	−9	9
10	Skalica	11	−10	9
11	AS Trencin	10	−9	8
12	Komárno	11	−7	6