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Zemplín Michalovce v Podbrezová

Zemplín Michalovce
1–4Full time
Podbrezová

Super Liga · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24
Zemplín Michalovce 1–4 Podbrezová PODBREZOVÁ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Podbrezová win38%
The market said40%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.575
The market’s Brier score0.549

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 32 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Podbrezová win at 38%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Podbrezová was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 37–25–38
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Zemplín Michalovce v Podbrezová
  4. 7′We published Podbrezová at 38%. Our model now makes it 64%. 0–1 · 17–20–64
  5. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Zemplín Michalovce 0–1 Podbrezová
  6. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Podbrezová win: 38% at kick-off, 64% now
  7. 9′M. Chrien scores for Podbrezová on 8′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 16–20–64
  8. 17′We published Podbrezová at 38%. Our model now makes it 65%. 0–1 · 15–20–65
  9. 24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' L. Lemishko · Zemplín Michalovce
  10. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 13–21–66
  11. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' T. Dzotsenidze · Zemplín Michalovce
  12. 37′🟨 YELLOW · 35' M. Chrien · Podbrezová
  13. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Podbrezová win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
  14. 45′SECOND HALF Zemplín Michalovce 0–1 Podbrezová
  15. 46′HALF-TIME Zemplín Michalovce 0–1 Podbrezová
  16. 47′We published Podbrezová at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
  17. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' R. Lampreht · Podbrezová
  18. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Podbrezová · On: V. Chyla · Off: L. Silagadze
  19. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Podbrezová · On: R. Paraj · Off: S. Tijani
  20. 51′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Zemplín Michalovce · On: V. Theofanopoulos · Off: P. Danek Corrected
  21. 51′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Zemplín Michalovce · On: A. Zubairu · Off: B. Cottrell Corrected
  22. 52′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Zemplín Michalovce · On: Park Tae-rang · Off: T. Dzotsenidze Corrected
  23. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' T. Dzotsenidze · Zemplín Michalovce
  24. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Podbrezová · On: O. Deml · Off: M. Khyminets
  25. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' R. Kejval · Podbrezová
  26. 62′We published Podbrezová at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
  27. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Zemplín Michalovce · On: N. Mihhailov · Off: F. Bahi Corrected
  28. 68′We published Podbrezová at 38%. Our model now makes it 96%. 0–2 · 0–3–96
  29. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Podbrezová win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
  30. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Zemplín Michalovce 0–2 Podbrezová
  31. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Podbrezová win: 38% at kick-off, 96% now
  32. 69′69′: B. Mrvaljevic on the scoresheet for Podbrezová, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
  33. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Podbrezová · On: M. Rusnak · Off: S. Stefanik
  34. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Podbrezová win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
  35. 75′We published Podbrezová at 38%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  36. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Zemplín Michalovce 0–3 Podbrezová
  37. 76′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  38. 76′Podbrezová ahead on 76′ through B. Mrvaljevic. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  39. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Zemplín Michalovce · On: J. Lopez · Off: E. Mashike
  40. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Podbrezová · On: A. Amoafo · Off: M. Chrien
  41. 82′J. Lopez scores for Zemplín Michalovce on 82′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
  42. 82′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–1–99
  43. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Zemplín Michalovce 1–3 Podbrezová · J. Lopez
  44. 86′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  45. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Zemplín Michalovce 1–4 Podbrezová
  46. 87′87′: B. Mrvaljevic on the scoresheet for Podbrezová, making it 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  47. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' B. Cottrell · Zemplín Michalovce
  48. 90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Zemplín Michalovce
  49. 91′A red card for Zemplín Michalovce on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  50. 93′Full time, 1–4. We called Podbrezová at 38% — that one lands. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  51. FTFULL TIME Zemplín Michalovce 1–4 Podbrezová
  52. FTZemplín Michalovce 1–4 Podbrezová · Podbrezová win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Podbrezová just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Zemplín Michalovce 37%, draw 25%, Podbrezová 38%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Zemplín Michalovce v PodbrezováBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Zemplín Michalovce win37%
Draw25%
Podbrezová win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 12

RefereeM. Dohal

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zemplín Michalovce

Podbrezová

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · the Slovak Super Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · the Slovak Super Liga

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Zemplín Michalovce11−514
7Podbrezová11−614

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · podbrezová winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off
38% The market40%
Us38%
Market40%

We make Podbrezová a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Zemplín Michalovce v Podbrezová1.47 – 1.51
Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 AugW3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 14 v 146 v 7
The market · Podbrezová win40% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 13:38
Our probability · Podbrezová win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Zemplín Michalovce win37%34%+3
Draw25%26%−1
Podbrezová win38%40%−2
Over 2.5 goals57%60%−3
Both teams to score60%63%−3
Over 1.5 goals80%80%0
Over 3.5 goals35%39%−4
Zemplín Michalovce or draw62%60%+2
Zemplín Michalovce clean sheet22%––
Podbrezová clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%
0123450 5.4 7.6 5.8 2.9 1 7.4 11.3 8.4 4.2 2 5.5 8.2 6.1 3.1 3 2.7 4.0 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Zemplín Michalovce down, Podbrezová across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.60
Over 2.58 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsPOD 2–0 ZEM · ZEM 1–2 POD · POD 0–1 ZEM · ZEM 0–4 POD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug

ZEMPLÍN MICHALOVCE

WWLWLD2–1 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–1

PODBREZOVÁ

DLDWLL2–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Dunajska Streda10+2426
2Spartak Trnava11+1021
3Žilina11+521
4Slovan Bratislava10+1420
5FK Košice10+314
6Zemplín Michalovce11−514
7Podbrezová11−614
8Dukla Banská Bystrica11−1013
9Ružomberok11−99
10Skalica11−109
11AS Trencin10−98
12Komárno11−76

The competition's standings before kick-off.