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Zemplín Michalovce v FK Košice

Zemplín Michalovce
1–1Full time
FK Košice

Super Liga · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17
Zemplín Michalovce 1–1 FK Košice FK KOŠICE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said FK Košice win39%
The market said45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.873
The market’s Brier score0.867

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FK Košice win at 39%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: FK Košice 39% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–24–38
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Zemplín Michalovce v FK Košice
  4. 20′SUBSTITUTION · 20' FK Košice · On: D. Magda · Off: D. Kruzliak
  5. 22′🟥 RED CARD · 22' Zemplín Michalovce
  6. 23′Zemplín Michalovce are down to ten from 22′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 36–28–36
  7. 31′FK Košice ahead on 31′ through A. Maras. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–21–65
  8. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Zemplín Michalovce 0–1 FK Košice · A. Maras (penalty)
  9. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' FK Košice win: 39% at kick-off, 65% now
  10. 31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' FK Košice win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Zemplín Michalovce win 14%)
  11. 32′We said FK Košice at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 0–1 · 13–21–66
  12. 33′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 13–21–66
  13. 35′E. Mashike scores for Zemplín Michalovce on 35′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–31–35
  14. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Zemplín Michalovce 1–1 FK Košice · E. Mashike
  15. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' FK Košice win: 39% at kick-off, 35% now
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Zemplín Michalovce 1–1 FK Košice
  17. 46′SECOND HALF Zemplín Michalovce 1–1 FK Košice
  18. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was FK Košice win 32%)
  19. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' D. Magda · FK Košice
  20. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' FK Košice win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
  21. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' FK Košice · On: M. Sovic · Off: D. Gallovic
  22. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' FK Košice · On: M. Dimun · Off: K. Palumets
  23. 61′We said FK Košice at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–46–27
  24. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Zemplín Michalovce · On: P. Danek · Off: M. Curma
  25. 68′We said FK Košice at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 23–53–24
  26. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Zemplín Michalovce · On: T. Walczak · Off: E. Mashike
  27. 74′We said FK Košice at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–61–19
  28. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' FK Košice win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
  29. 80′We said FK Košice at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–14
  30. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' B. Cottrell · Zemplín Michalovce
  31. 84′We said FK Košice at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–9
  32. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' FK Košice win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
  33. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FK Košice · On: M. Mateas · Off: M. Rehus
  34. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FK Košice · On: T. Seguchi · Off: O. Kakay
  35. 90′1–1 at the end. Our 39% on FK Košice misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  36. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Zemplín Michalovce · On: N. Mihhailov · Off: B. Cottrell
  37. 91′We said FK Košice at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
  38. FTFULL TIME Zemplín Michalovce 1–1 FK Košice
  39. FTZemplín Michalovce 1–1 FK Košice · FK Košice win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with FK Košice just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Zemplín Michalovce 38%, draw 24%, FK Košice 39%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Zemplín Michalovce v FK KošiceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Zemplín Michalovce win38%
Draw24%
FK Košice win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 11

RefereeB. Kiss

Line-ups

Zemplín Michalovce

FK Košice

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zemplín Michalovce

FK Košice

5Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · the Slovak Cup

Last match: 14 Oct · the Slovak Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6FK Košice9+313
7Zemplín Michalovce10−513

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Zemplín Michalovce

Formation not confirmed

16 A. Jakubech

27 M. Curma

25 L. Pauschek

26 T. Dzotsenidze

12 F. Bahi

8 T. Pilling

3 M. Koscelnik

80 B. Cottrell

70 R. Korba

20 L. Lemishko

99 E. Mashike

Coach · Anton Soltis

Substitutes

1 · P. Lukac

77 · Park Tae-rang

7 · K. Brosnan

4 · A. Zubairu

22 · P. Danek

13 · N. Mihhailov

9 · T. Walczak

18 · V. Theofanopoulos

11 · J. Lopez

FK Košice

Formation not confirmed

22 M. Kira

66 B. Damjanovic

26 S. Kosa

24 D. Kruzliak

29 O. Kakay

6 F. Lichy

8 D. Gallovic

23 M. Madlenak

80 K. Palumets

77 M. Rehus

99 A. Maras

Coach · Peter Cernak

Substitutes

33 · F. Kalanin

21 · D. Magda

47 · L. Lukacevic

10 · E. Julardzija

7 · M. Dimun

15 · M. Sovic

44 · M. Mateas

9 · T. Seguchi

Our number · fk košice winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:15 · locked at kick-off
39% The market45%
Us39%
Market45%

We make FK Košice a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Zemplín Michalovce v FK Košice1.58 – 1.60
Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 AugW4 D0 L2 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 13 v 137 v 6
The market · FK Košice win45% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 12 OCT 04:0518 OCT 13:50
Our probability · FK Košice win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Zemplín Michalovce win38%30%+8
Draw24%24%0
FK Košice win39%45%−6
Over 2.5 goals61%64%−3
Both teams to score63%65%−2
Over 1.5 goals83%83%0
Over 3.5 goals39%43%−4
Zemplín Michalovce or draw61%55%+6
Zemplín Michalovce clean sheet21%––
FK Košice clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%
0123450 4.5 6.5 5.3 2.9 1 6.4 10.6 8.3 4.4 2 5.2 8.2 6.5 3.5 3 2.8 4.3 3.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Zemplín Michalovce down, FK Košice across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.12
Over 2.54 of 8
Both scored4 of 8
Last meetingsZEM 0–2 FKK · FKK 3–2 ZEM · FKK 3–2 ZEM · ZEM 3–2 FKK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 Aug

ZEMPLÍN MICHALOVCE

WWWLWL2–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–3

FK KOŠICE

LDWLWD1–2 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 2–5 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Dunajska Streda9+2323
2Spartak Trnava11+1021
3Žilina10+621
4Slovan Bratislava10+1420
5Podbrezová10−514
6FK Košice9+313
7Zemplín Michalovce10−513
8Dukla Banská Bystrica10−1110
9Ružomberok11−99
10Skalica11−109
11AS Trencin10−98
12Komárno11−76

The competition's standings before kick-off.