Spartak Trnava v Slovan Bratislava prediction · Super Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Spartak Trnava 0–3 Slovan Bratislava SLOVAN BRATISLAVA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Slovan Bratislava win~~38%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.578

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.487

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Slovan Bratislava win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Slovan Bratislava 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 37–25–38
1′KICK-OFF Spartak Trnava v Slovan Bratislava
20′R. Ibrahim scores for Slovan Bratislava on 19′. 0–0 · 35–29–36
21′We said Slovan Bratislava at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 0–1 · 14–21–65
21′⚽ GOAL · 19' Spartak Trnava 0–1 Slovan Bratislava · R. Ibrahim (assist S. Camara)
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Slovan Bratislava win: 38% at kick-off, 65% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 12–21–66
34′34′: A. Griger on the scoresheet for Slovan Bratislava. 0–1 · 12–21–67
35′We said Slovan Bratislava at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 0–2 · 3–8–89
35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Spartak Trnava 0–2 Slovan Bratislava · A. Griger (assist T. Barseghyan)
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Slovan Bratislava win: 38% at kick-off, 89% now
40′We said Slovan Bratislava at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–2 · 2–8–90
45′HALF-TIME Spartak Trnava 0–2 Slovan Bratislava
45′SECOND HALF Spartak Trnava 0–2 Slovan Bratislava
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Spartak Trnava · On: D. Bukovsky · Off: F. Trello
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Spartak Trnava · On: L. Mehmeti · Off: P. Azango
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Spartak Trnava · On: L. Fabis · Off: L. Holik
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' P. Pokorny · Slovan Bratislava
61′We said Slovan Bratislava at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Slovan Bratislava win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Slovan Bratislava · On: A. Mustafic · Off: A. Gajdos
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Slovan Bratislava · On: M. Kianga · Off: A. Griger
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Slovan Bratislava · On: N. Marcelli · Off: T. Barseghyan
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' E. Sabo · Spartak Trnava
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' G. Moistsrapishvili · Spartak Trnava
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' D. Bukovsky · Spartak Trnava
81′R. Ibrahim scores for Slovan Bratislava on 80′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
81′We said Slovan Bratislava at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Spartak Trnava 0–3 Slovan Bratislava · R. Ibrahim
82′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Slovan Bratislava · On: D. Matsuoka · Off: R. Ibrahim
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Slovan Bratislava · On: A. Maros · Off: S. Camara
85′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Spartak Trnava · On: T. Wildeboer · Off: G. Moistsrapishvili Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Spartak Trnava · On: T. Wildeboer · Off: G. Moistsrapishvili
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Spartak Trnava · On: P. Nwadike · Off: M. Ujlaky
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' K. Bajric · Slovan Bratislava
90′0–3 at the end. Our 38% on Slovan Bratislava comes in. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Spartak Trnava 0–3 Slovan Bratislava
FTSpartak Trnava 0–3 Slovan Bratislava · Slovan Bratislava win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Slovan Bratislava just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Spartak Trnava 37%, draw 25%, Slovan Bratislava 38%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Spartak Trnava v Slovan BratislavaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Spartak Trnava win37%

Draw25%

Slovan Bratislava win38%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueCity Arena Trnava

RefereeM. Ocenas

Line-ups

Spartak Trnava

Slovan Bratislava

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spartak Trnava

Slovan Bratislava

3Days since last match3

Last match: 14 Oct · the Slovak Cup

Last match: 14 Oct · UEFA Champions League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Spartak Trnava	10	+13	21
4	Slovan Bratislava	9	+11	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Spartak Trnava

Formation not confirmed

72 M. Vantruba

4 L. Holik

52 E. Sabo

13 M. Ujlaky

3 J. Carrion

8 G. Moistsrapishvili

91 M. Lausic

11 P. Azango

30 L. Khorkheli

20 F. Trello

19 T. Kudlicka

Coach · Antonio Munoz

Substitutes

1 · B. Szaraz

21 · L. Fabis

2 · P. Nwadike

25 · I. Mensah

6 · R. Prochazka

5 · R. Begala

22 · D. Bukovsky

14 · T. Wildeboer

17 · L. Mehmeti

Slovan Bratislava

Formation not confirmed

71 D. Takac

28 C. Blackman

12 K. Bajric

15 S. Markovic

57 S. Cruz

3 P. Pokorny

11 T. Barseghyan

5 R. Ibrahim

8 A. Gajdos

21 S. Camara

30 A. Griger

Coach · Yaya Toure

Substitutes

1 · A. Popovic

6 · K. Wimmer

70 · C. Martinez

20 · A. Mustafic

88 · D. Matsuoka

29 · A. Maros

14 · A. Yirajang

10 · N. Marcelli

19 · M. Kianga

Our number · slovan bratislava winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

38% The market43%

Us38%

~~Market~~43%

We make Slovan Bratislava a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Spartak Trnava v Slovan Bratislava~~1.43 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 21 v 17~~2 v 4

~~The market · Slovan Bratislava win~~43% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Slovan Bratislava win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spartak Trnava win	37%	31%	+6
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Slovan Bratislava win	38%	43%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	55%	56%	−1
Both teams to score	58%	59%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	78%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	35%	−2
Spartak Trnava or draw	62%	57%	+5
Spartak Trnava clean sheet	23%	–	–
Slovan Bratislava clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 5.9 7.9 5.9 2.9 1 7.7 11.7 8.4 4.1 2 5.6 8.1 6.0 2.9 3 2.7 3.9 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spartak Trnava down, Slovan Bratislava across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,033 Super Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.5% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Spartak Trnava at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Slovan Bratislava away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Spartak Trnava, 1.47 for Slovan Bratislava. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SPA 0–1 SLO · SLO 2–2 SPA · SLO 4–0 SPA · SPA 1–1 SLO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 Aug

SPARTAK TRNAVA

WLDWDW4–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 5–2 · 2–2 · 3–1

SLOVAN BRATISLAVA

WLLDWD2–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dunajska Streda	9	+23	23
2	Spartak Trnava	10	+13	21
3	Žilina	10	+6	21
4	Slovan Bratislava	9	+11	17
5	Podbrezová	10	−5	14
6	FK Košice	9	+3	13
7	Zemplín Michalovce	10	−5	13
8	Dukla Banská Bystrica	10	−11	10
9	Skalica	10	−8	9
10	Komárno	10	−6	6
11	Ružomberok	10	−10	6
12	AS Trencin	9	−11	5