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Slovan Bratislava v Dukla Banská Bystrica

Slovan Bratislava

2–2Full time

Dukla Banská Bystrica

Super Liga · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Slovan Bratislava 2–2 Dukla Banská Bystrica SLOVAN BRATISLAVA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Slovan Bratislava win~~75%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.308

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.188

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Slovan Bratislava win at 75%.
1′Much as we predicted: Slovan Bratislava was 75% before kick-off and our model makes it 75% now. 0–0 · 75–15–10
1′KICK-OFF Slovan Bratislava v Dukla Banská Bystrica
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Slovan Bratislava win: 75% at kick-off, 65% now
38′We said Slovan Bratislava at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 63%. 0–0 · 63–24–12
45′SECOND HALF Slovan Bratislava 0–0 Dukla Banská Bystrica
46′We said Slovan Bratislava at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–28–12
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' A. Gajdos · Slovan Bratislava
47′HALF-TIME Slovan Bratislava 0–0 Dukla Banská Bystrica
52′We published Slovan Bratislava at 75%. Our model now makes it 88%. 1–0 · 88–10–2
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Slovan Bratislava 1–0 Dukla Banská Bystrica
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Slovan Bratislava win: 75% at kick-off, 88% now
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' E. Arevalo · Dukla Banská Bystrica
54′Slovan Bratislava ahead on 53′ through K. Bajric. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–10–2
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Slovan Bratislava · On: S. Kozlovsky · Off: S. Cruz
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' K. Bajric · Slovan Bratislava
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Slovan Bratislava · On: A. Mustafic · Off: R. Ibrahim
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Slovan Bratislava · On: T. Barseghyan · Off: M. Kianga
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' D. Richtarech · Dukla Banská Bystrica
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Dukla Banská Bystrica · On: K. Vallo · Off: E. Arevalo
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Dukla Banská Bystrica · On: T. Slebodnik · Off: D. Richtarech
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' M. Bakala · Dukla Banská Bystrica
72′We published Slovan Bratislava at 75%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
76′We published Slovan Bratislava at 75%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
76′T. Barseghyan scores for Slovan Bratislava on 76′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Slovan Bratislava 2–0 Dukla Banská Bystrica
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Slovan Bratislava win: 75% at kick-off, 99% now
78′We published Slovan Bratislava at 75%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Slovan Bratislava · On: C. Martinez · Off: S. Camara
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' L. Willweber · Dukla Banská Bystrica
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Slovan Bratislava · On: N. Marcelli · Off: A. Gajdos Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Dukla Banská Bystrica · On: E. Okechukwu · Off: J. Povazanec
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Dukla Banská Bystrica · On: A. Hanes · Off: R. Polievka
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Slovan Bratislava 2–1 Dukla Banská Bystrica
89′88′: A. Hanes on the scoresheet for Dukla Banská Bystrica, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
92′We said Slovan Bratislava at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 2–2 · 6–92–2
92′4 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 6–92–2
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Slovan Bratislava 2–2 Dukla Banská Bystrica
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Slovan Bratislava win: 75% at kick-off, 6% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Slovan Bratislava win 98%)
93′Dukla Banská Bystrica level it on 90′ through A. Hanes. 2–2. 2–2 · 4–94–1
93′We said Slovan Bratislava at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–94–1
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Slovan Bratislava win: 75% at kick-off, 4% now
97′SUBSTITUTION · 90+7' Dukla Banská Bystrica · On: V. Toth · Off: M. Duris
99′Full time, 2–2. We called Slovan Bratislava at 75% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–2 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Slovan Bratislava 2–2 Dukla Banská Bystrica
FTSlovan Bratislava 2–2 Dukla Banská Bystrica · Slovan Bratislava win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Slovan Bratislava are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Slovan Bratislava 75%, draw 15%, Dukla Banská Bystrica 10%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Slovan Bratislava v Dukla Banská BystricaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Slovan Bratislava win75%

Draw15%

Dukla Banská Bystrica win10%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 12

RefereeF. Glova

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Slovan Bratislava

Dukla Banská Bystrica

4Days since last match6

Last match: 20 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 18 Oct · the Slovak Super Liga

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Slovan Bratislava	10	+14	20
8	Dukla Banská Bystrica	11	−10	13

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Ruthless Roma put four past toothless Slovan BratislavaBBC Sport · 21 Oct 22:13 · AS Roma, Slovan Bratislava

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · slovan bratislava winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

75% The market70%

Us75%

~~Market~~70%

We make Slovan Bratislava a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.8–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Slovan Bratislava v Dukla Banská Bystrica~~2.78 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 13~~4 v 8

~~The market · Slovan Bratislava win~~70% · ours 75%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Slovan Bratislava win The market, margin stripped

Published at 76%, 75% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slovan Bratislava win	75%	70%	+5
Draw	15%	17%	−2
Dukla Banská Bystrica win	10%	13%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	71%	66%	+5
Both teams to score	56%	55%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	88%	84%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	50%	46%	+4
Slovan Bratislava or draw	90%	87%	+3
Slovan Bratislava clean sheet	40%	–	–
Dukla Banská Bystrica clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.5%

0123450 2.8 2.4 1 7.0 6.5 3.0 2 9.5 8.6 4.0 3 8.6 7.8 3.6 4 6.0 5.4 2.5 5 3.5 3.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Slovan Bratislava down, Dukla Banská Bystrica across0–5 goals a side shown (92.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,039 Super Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Slovan Bratislava at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Dukla Banská Bystrica away: 0.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.78 goals for Slovan Bratislava, 0.92 for Dukla Banská Bystrica. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DUK 0–4 SLO · SLO 3–1 DUK · DUK 0–2 SLO · DUK 1–4 SLO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug

SLOVAN BRATISLAVA

LLDWDW1–2 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–0

DUKLA BANSKÁ BYSTRICA

DLWLWW2–2 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dunajska Streda	10	+24	26
2	Spartak Trnava	11	+10	21
3	Žilina	11	+5	21
4	Slovan Bratislava	10	+14	20
5	FK Košice	10	+3	14
6	Zemplín Michalovce	11	−5	14
7	Podbrezová	11	−6	14
8	Dukla Banská Bystrica	11	−10	13
9	Ružomberok	11	−9	9
10	Skalica	11	−10	9
11	AS Trencin	10	−9	8
12	Komárno	11	−7	6