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Skalica v Spartak Trnava

Skalica
1–1Full time
Spartak Trnava

Super Liga · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48
Skalica 1–1 Spartak Trnava SPARTAK TRNAVA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Spartak Trnava win52%
The market said51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.875
The market’s Brier score0.847

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Spartak Trnava win at 52%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Spartak Trnava 52% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 23–26–51
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Skalica v Spartak Trnava
  4. 6′5′: T. Wildeboer on the scoresheet for Spartak Trnava, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 8–15–77
  5. 6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Skalica 0–1 Spartak Trnava · T. Wildeboer
  6. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Spartak Trnava win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
  7. 7′We said Spartak Trnava at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 0–1 · 8–15–77
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 6–16–78
  9. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' M. Masik · Skalica
  10. 45′We said Spartak Trnava at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 4–16–80
  11. 45′We said Spartak Trnava at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 40%. 1–1 · 20–40–40
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Skalica 1–1 Spartak Trnava
  13. 46′SECOND HALF Skalica 1–1 Spartak Trnava
  14. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' P. Nwadike · Spartak Trnava
  15. 50′Skalica level it on 45′ through O. Podhorin. 1–1. 1–1 · 20–43–38
  16. 50′⚽ GOAL · 45+5' Skalica 1–1 Spartak Trnava · O. Podhorin (penalty)
  17. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Spartak Trnava win: 52% at kick-off, 38% now
  18. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Spartak Trnava win 80%)
  19. 51′We said Spartak Trnava at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 1–1 · 19–43–37
  20. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' O. Podhorin · Skalica
  21. 57′We said Spartak Trnava at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 18–48–34
  22. 57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' E. Daniel · Skalica
  23. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Spartak Trnava win: 52% at kick-off, 32% now
  24. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Spartak Trnava · On: L. Mehmeti · Off: P. Azango
  25. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Spartak Trnava · On: D. Bukovsky · Off: L. Khorkheli
  26. 65′We said Spartak Trnava at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 16–55–29
  27. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Skalica · On: P. Pudhorocky · Off: M. Ryzek
  28. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Skalica · On: P. Onyedika · Off: M. Masik
  29. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' F. Trello · Spartak Trnava
  30. 71′We said Spartak Trnava at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 14–62–24
  31. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Skalica · On: A. Abdullahi · Off: L. Simko
  32. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Spartak Trnava win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
  33. 76′We said Spartak Trnava at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 11–70–19
  34. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Spartak Trnava · On: S. Skrbo · Off: F. Trello
  35. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Skalica · On: A. Ravas · Off: D. Baris
  36. 81′We said Spartak Trnava at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 8–79–13
  37. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Spartak Trnava win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
  38. 84′We said Spartak Trnava at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 6–85–9
  39. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' A. Abdullahi · Skalica
  40. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Spartak Trnava · On: L. Holik · Off: L. Fabis
  41. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Spartak Trnava · On: R. Prochazka · Off: G. Moistsrapishvili
  42. 91′We said Spartak Trnava at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–93–4
  43. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' L. Holik · Spartak Trnava
  44. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' A. Morong · Skalica
  45. FTFULL TIME Skalica 1–1 Spartak Trnava
  46. FTSkalica 1–1 Spartak Trnava · Spartak Trnava win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spartak Trnava are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Skalica 23%, draw 25%, Spartak Trnava 52%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Skalica v Spartak TrnavaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Skalica win23%
Draw25%
Spartak Trnava win52%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 12

RefereeM. Choren

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Skalica

Spartak Trnava

4Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · the Slovak Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · the Slovak Super Liga

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Spartak Trnava11+1021
10Skalica11−109

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spartak trnava winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
52% The market51%
Us52%
Market51%

We make Spartak Trnava a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Skalica v Spartak Trnava0.96 – 1.59
Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 30 AugW0 D2 L4 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 9 v 2110 v 2
The market · Spartak Trnava win51% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 16:10
Our probability · Spartak Trnava win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Skalica win23%23%0
Draw25%27%−2
Spartak Trnava win52%51%+1
Over 2.5 goals47%49%−2
Both teams to score49%51%−2
Over 1.5 goals72%72%0
Over 3.5 goals25%28%−3
Skalica or draw48%49%−1
Skalica clean sheet21%––
Spartak Trnava clean sheet39%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.3%
0123450 8.2 12.3 9.8 5.2 2.1 1 7.4 12.0 9.3 4.9 2 3.6 5.7 4.5 2.4 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Skalica down, Spartak Trnava across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.22
Over 2.53 of 9
Both scored4 of 9
Last meetingsSPA 1–1 SKA · SPA 2–0 SKA · SKA 0–4 SPA · SPA 2–0 SKA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 30 Aug

SKALICA

LDLLDL1–6 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

SPARTAK TRNAVA

LDWDWL1–3 · 1–1 · 5–2 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Dunajska Streda10+2426
2Spartak Trnava11+1021
3Žilina11+521
4Slovan Bratislava10+1420
5FK Košice10+314
6Zemplín Michalovce11−514
7Podbrezová11−614
8Dukla Banská Bystrica11−1013
9Ružomberok11−99
10Skalica11−109
11AS Trencin10−98
12Komárno11−76

The competition's standings before kick-off.