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Skalica v Slovan Bratislava

Skalica

1–1Full time

Slovan Bratislava

Super Liga · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Skalica 1–1 Slovan Bratislava SLOVAN BRATISLAVA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Slovan Bratislava win~~61%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.021

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.048

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Slovan Bratislava win at 61%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Slovan Bratislava 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 18–21–61
2′KICK-OFF Skalica v Slovan Bratislava
8′We said Slovan Bratislava at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 1–0 · 41–25–35
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Skalica 1–0 Slovan Bratislava
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Slovan Bratislava win: 61% at kick-off, 35% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Skalica win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Slovan Bratislava win 35%)
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Slovan Bratislava win: 61% at kick-off, 59% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Slovan Bratislava win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Skalica win 18%)
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' D. Ignatenko · Slovan Bratislava
38′🟨 YELLOW · 34' S. Sula · Skalica
41′We said Slovan Bratislava at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 18–33–49
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Slovan Bratislava win: 61% at kick-off, 49% now
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Skalica · On: A. Ravas · Off: L. Nonikashvili
47′HALF-TIME Skalica 0–0 Slovan Bratislava
48′SECOND HALF Skalica 0–0 Slovan Bratislava
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Skalica 1–0 Slovan Bratislava
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Skalica 1–0 Slovan Bratislava · E. Daniel
59′⚽ GOAL · 60' Skalica 1–1 Slovan Bratislava · T. Barseghyan
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Slovan Bratislava · On: S. Camara · Off: A. Maros
71′PENALTY MISSED · 71' A. Sporar · Slovan Bratislava
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' A. Abdullahi · Skalica
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Skalica · On: M. Masik · Off: D. Baris
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Skalica · On: L. Simko · Off: A. Abdullahi
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Skalica 1–2 Slovan Bratislava · S. Camara (assist A. Sporar)
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Slovan Bratislava · On: R. Cerepkai · Off: N. Marcelli
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Slovan Bratislava · On: P. Pokorny · Off: D. Ignatenko
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Skalica · On: E. Eshele · Off: R. Potocny
FTFULL TIME Skalica 1–1 Slovan Bratislava
FTSkalica 1–1 Slovan Bratislava · Slovan Bratislava win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Skalica win18%

Draw21%

Slovan Bratislava win61%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Skalica

4-2-3-1

39 M. Junas

13 S. Sula

6 P. Karhan

26 P. Guinari

3 M. Cernek

9 A. Morong

27 D. Baris

23 E. Daniel

10 L. Nonikashvili

30 A. Abdullahi

91 R. Potocny

Coach · Stanislav Macek

Substitutes

1 · R. Ludha

20 · O. Podhorin

8 · L. Simko

5 · M. Ryzek

4 · M. Macorig

21 · A. Ravas

19 · M. Masik

11 · A. Krizan

34 · E. Eshele

Slovan Bratislava

4-1-4-1

71 D. Takac

88 D. Matsuoka

12 K. Bajric

15 S. Markovic

2 S. Kozlovsky

77 D. Ignatenko

29 A. Maros

11 T. Barseghyan

20 A. Mustafic

10 N. Marcelli

99 A. Sporar

Coach · Yaya Toure

Substitutes

1 · A. Popovic

6 · K. Wimmer

3 · P. Pokorny

8 · A. Gajdos

7 · L. Hofstadter

13 · R. Cerepkai

21 · S. Camara

14 · A. Yirajang

19 · M. Kianga

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Skalica

4-2-3-1

39 M. Junas

13 S. Sula

6 P. Karhan

26 P. Guinari

3 M. Cernek

9 A. Morong

27 D. Baris

23 E. Daniel

10 L. Nonikashvili

30 A. Abdullahi

91 R. Potocny

Coach · Stanislav Macek

Substitutes

1 · R. Ludha

20 · O. Podhorin

8 · L. Simko

5 · M. Ryzek

4 · M. Macorig

21 · A. Ravas

19 · M. Masik

11 · A. Krizan

34 · E. Eshele

Slovan Bratislava

4-1-4-1

71 D. Takac

88 D. Matsuoka

12 K. Bajric

15 S. Markovic

2 S. Kozlovsky

77 D. Ignatenko

29 A. Maros

11 T. Barseghyan

20 A. Mustafic

10 N. Marcelli

99 A. Sporar

Coach · Yaya Toure

Substitutes

1 · A. Popovic

6 · K. Wimmer

3 · P. Pokorny

8 · A. Gajdos

7 · L. Hofstadter

13 · R. Cerepkai

21 · S. Camara

14 · A. Yirajang

19 · M. Kianga

Our number · slovan bratislava winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

61% The market63%

Us61%

~~Market~~63%

We make Slovan Bratislava a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–2.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · slovan bratislava win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 61% to 62% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Skalica win	18%	16%	+2
Draw	21%	21%	0
Slovan Bratislava win	61%	63%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	58%	63%	−4
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	82%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	36%	41%	−5
Skalica or draw	39%	37%	+2
Skalica clean sheet	13%	–	–
Slovan Bratislava clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 5.2 9.6 9.8 6.6 3.4 1 4.7 9.9 9.7 6.6 3.4 2 2.5 4.9 4.9 3.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Skalica down, Slovan Bratislava across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,027 Super Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.3% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.88 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Skalica at home: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Slovan Bratislava away: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Skalica, 2.04 for Slovan Bratislava. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SKA 0–1 SLO · SLO 1–0 SKA · SLO 3–1 SKA · SKA 2–3 SLO

Form · last six in Super Liga

SKALICA

LLLDLL2–4 · 0–2 · 1–6 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 0–1

SLOVAN BRATISLAVA

WWLLDW5–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dunajska Streda	8	+20	20
2	Žilina	9	+6	20
3	Spartak Trnava	9	+11	18
4	Slovan Bratislava	8	+11	16
5	Podbrezová	9	−3	14
6	Zemplín Michalovce	9	−2	13
7	FK Košice	8	+3	12
8	Skalica	9	−8	8
9	Dukla Banská Bystrica	9	−12	7
10	Komárno	9	−6	5
11	AS Trencin	8	−10	5
12	Ružomberok	9	−10	5