Skalica v AS Trencin prediction · Super Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Skalica 0–2 AS Trencin SKALICA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Skalica win~~43%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.734

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.708

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Skalica win at 43%.
0′KICK-OFF Skalica v AS Trencin
1′Much as we predicted: Skalica was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–31
8′We said Skalica at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–22–58
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Skalica 0–1 AS Trencin
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Skalica win: 43% at kick-off, 20% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' AS Trencin win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Skalica win 20%)
9′We said Skalica at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–22–58
10′L. Mikulaj scores for AS Trencin on 9′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 19–23–58
12′We said Skalica at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–2 · 7–12–81
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Skalica 0–2 AS Trencin
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Skalica win: 43% at kick-off, 7% now
14′13′: Eynel Soares on the scoresheet for AS Trencin, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 6–12–82
28′We said Skalica at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–85
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Skalica win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
38′13′: Eynel Soares on the scoresheet for AS Trencin, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–88
38′We said Skalica at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–88
45′SECOND HALF Skalica 0–2 AS Trencin
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' AS Trencin · On: D. Kam · Off: Eynel Soares
48′HALF-TIME Skalica 0–2 AS Trencin
55′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–2 · 1–6–92
56′🟨 YELLOW · 50' R. Potocny · Skalica
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Skalica · On: L. Simko · Off: S. Sula
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Skalica · On: E. Eshele · Off: R. Potocny
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Skalica · On: A. Ravas · Off: M. Masik
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' A. Morong · Skalica
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' AS Trencin · On: F. Slovak · Off: P. Gonzalez
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' AS Trencin · On: C. Ansah · Off: J. Paur
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' AS Trencin · On: F. Kasana · Off: L. Mikulaj
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' AS Trencin · On: N. Jovanovic · Off: H. Pavek
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Skalica · On: O. Podhorin · Off: D. Baris
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' R. Sanusi · AS Trencin
92′Full time, 0–2. We called Skalica at 43% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Skalica 0–2 AS Trencin
FTSkalica 0–2 AS Trencin · Skalica win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Skalica are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Skalica 43%, draw 26%, AS Trencin 31%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Skalica v AS TrencinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Skalica win43%

Draw26%

AS Trencin win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 11

RefereeM. Smolak

Line-ups

Skalica

AS Trencin

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Skalica

AS Trencin

7Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · the Slovak Super Liga

Last match: 14 Oct · the Slovak Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Skalica	10	−8	9
12	AS Trencin	9	−11	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Skalica

Formation not confirmed

39 M. Junas

13 S. Sula

6 P. Karhan

26 P. Guinari

3 M. Cernek

9 A. Morong

27 D. Baris

23 E. Daniel

19 M. Masik

30 A. Abdullahi

91 R. Potocny

Coach · Stanislav Macek

Substitutes

1 · R. Ludha

20 · O. Podhorin

8 · L. Simko

5 · M. Ryzek

4 · M. Macorig

21 · A. Ravas

14 · M. Gulisek

11 · A. Krizan

34 · E. Eshele

AS Trencin

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Katic

90 H. Pavek

33 R. Krizan

29 L. Bessile

25 L. Skovajsa

93 P. Gonzalez

8 T. Hajovsky

14 R. Sanusi

77 J. Paur

7 Eynel Soares

21 L. Mikulaj

Coach · Marek Danovsky

Substitutes

30 · M. Slavicek

13 · J. Mulder

2 · N. Jovanovic

95 · P. Diouf

16 · C. Ansah

22 · D. Jepihhin

5 · F. Kasana

10 · D. Kam

27 · F. Slovak

Our number · skalica winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market42%

Us43%

~~Market~~42%

We make Skalica a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Skalica v AS Trencin~~1.46 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 9 v 5~~9 v 12

~~The market · Skalica win~~42% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Skalica win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Skalica win	43%	42%	+1
Draw	26%	26%	0
AS Trencin win	31%	32%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	49%	58%	−9
Both teams to score	53%	61%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	74%	79%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	28%	36%	−8
Skalica or draw	69%	68%	+1
Skalica clean sheet	31%	–	–
AS Trencin clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.5 8.2 5.0 2.0 1 10.1 12.4 7.2 2.9 2 7.5 8.8 5.2 2.1 3 3.7 4.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Skalica down, AS Trencin across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,033 Super Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.5% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Skalica at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). AS Trencin away: 1.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Skalica, 1.19 for AS Trencin. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SKA 4–1 AST · AST 2–1 SKA · SKA 0–1 AST · AST 1–1 SKA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 Aug

SKALICA

LLDLLD0–2 · 1–6 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–1

AS TRENCIN

LWLLLL0–4 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dunajska Streda	9	+23	23
2	Spartak Trnava	10	+13	21
3	Žilina	10	+6	21
4	Slovan Bratislava	9	+11	17
5	Podbrezová	10	−5	14
6	FK Košice	9	+3	13
7	Zemplín Michalovce	10	−5	13
8	Dukla Banská Bystrica	10	−11	10
9	Skalica	10	−8	9
10	Komárno	10	−6	6
11	Ružomberok	10	−10	6
12	AS Trencin	9	−11	5