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Ružomberok v Žilina

Ružomberok

2–2Full time

Žilina

Super Liga · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Ružomberok 2–2 Žilina ŽILINA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Žilina win~~52%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.923

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.850

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 43 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Žilina win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Žilina was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 25–23–52
3′Much as we predicted: Žilina was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 25–23–52
11′M. Fasko scores for Žilina on 11′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–16–75
12′We published Žilina at 52%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 9–16–75
12′M. Fasko scores for Žilina on 11′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–16–75
16′16′ and it is 0–2: A. Narimanidze on the scoresheet for Žilina. 0–2 · 2–6–91
17′We published Žilina at 52%. Our model now makes it 91%. 0–2 · 2–6–91
17′16′ and it is 0–2: A. Narimanidze on the scoresheet for Žilina. 0–2 · 2–6–91
18′We published Žilina at 52%. Our model now makes it 91%. 0–2 · 2–6–91
26′A red card for Žilina on 25′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–2 · 8–16–75
27′Ružomberok ahead on 27′ through A. Selecky. 1–2. 1–2 · 8–17–75
28′Ružomberok ahead on 27′ through A. Selecky. 1–2. 1–2 · 8–17–76
33′We published Žilina at 52%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–2 · 7–17–76
36′A red card for Žilina on 25′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–2 · 7–17–76
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Ružomberok 2–2 Žilina · A. Selecky
41′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 24–34–43
41′D. Kostka scores for Ružomberok on 41′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 24–34–43
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Žilina win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Žilina win: 52% at kick-off, 76% now
41′⚽ GOAL · 42' Ružomberok 2–2 Žilina · D. Kostka
42′D. Kostka scores for Ružomberok on 41′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 23–34–43
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Žilina win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Žilina win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Žilina win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Žilina win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Žilina win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Žilina win: 52% at kick-off, 41% now
45′SECOND HALF Ružomberok 2–2 Žilina
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Žilina · On: K. Bilalovic · Off: M. Fasko
46′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 23–36–41
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Žilina win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Žilina win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Žilina win: 52% at kick-off, 41% now
48′We said Žilina at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 2–2 · 23–37–40
49′We said Žilina at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 2–2 · 23–38–40
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Žilina win: 52% at kick-off, 41% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Ružomberok · On: M. Chobot · Off: V. Hranos
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Ružomberok · On: T. Buchvaldek · Off: F. Soucek
70′⚽ GOAL · 11' Ružomberok 2–2 Žilina · M. Fasko
70′⚽ GOAL · 16' Ružomberok 2–2 Žilina · A. Narimanidze (assist F. Bzdyl)
70′🟥 RED CARD · 25' A. Narimanidze · Žilina
70′⚽ GOAL · 27' Ružomberok 2–2 Žilina · A. Selecky
70′🟨 YELLOW · 29' J. Hladik · Ružomberok
70′🟨 YELLOW · 34' D. Kostl · Ružomberok
70′🟨 YELLOW · 35' K. Bari · Žilina
70′⚽ GOAL · 41' Ružomberok 2–2 Žilina · D. Kostka (assist M. Bacik)
70′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Žilina · On: K. Bilalovic · Off: M. Fasko
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Ružomberok · On: M. Chobot · Off: V. Hranos
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Ružomberok · On: T. Buchvaldek · Off: F. Soucek
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Žilina · On: A. Florea · Off: P. Ilko
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Žilina · On: M. Traore · Off: K. Bari
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Ružomberok · On: M. Chobot · Off: V. Hranos
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Ružomberok · On: T. Buchvaldek · Off: F. Soucek
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Žilina · On: A. Florea · Off: P. Ilko
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Žilina · On: M. Traore · Off: K. Bari
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ružomberok · On: M. Boda · Off: J. Hladik
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ružomberok · On: A. Tucny · Off: M. Bacik
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Ružomberok · On: M. Kelemen · Off: A. Mojzis
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Žilina · On: D. Homet Ruiz · Off: F. Bzdyl
91′🟨 YELLOW · 91' D. Kostka · Ružomberok
92′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Žilina · On: X. Adang · Off: M. Kacer
93′🟨 YELLOW · 94' J. Albin · Žilina
FTFULL TIME Ružomberok 2–2 Žilina
FTRužomberok 2–2 Žilina · Žilina win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Ružomberok win25%

Draw23%

Žilina win52%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:30

RefereeL. Dzivjak

Line-ups

Ružomberok

3-4-3

Žilina

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ružomberok

Žilina

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Žilina	9	+6	20
11	Ružomberok	9	−10	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ružomberok

3-4-3

1 I. Krajcirik

16 D. Kostl

5 T. Marusin

2 A. Mojzis

31 D. Kostka

10 F. Soucek

4 O. Luteran

28 A. Selecky

15 M. Bacik

14 J. Hladik

19 V. Hranos

Coach · Jaroslav Kostl

Substitutes

34 · D. Huska

23 · D. Prekop

25 · D. Grgic

20 · M. Chobot

22 · T. Buchvaldek

30 · M. Boda

17 · A. Tucny

26 · M. Kelemen

24 · P. Jevos

Žilina

3-4-3

31 D. Sipos

25 J. Albin

28 A. Narimanidze

17 J. Minarik

21 T. Hranica

66 M. Kacer

11 F. Bzdyl

20 K. Bari

23 M. Fasko

16 P. Ilko

95 M. Roginic

Coach · Vladimir Vesely

Substitutes

26 · T. Tarcsi

19 · M. Traore

99 · K. Bilalovic

10 · A. Florea

6 · X. Adang

90 · D. Homet Ruiz

9 · P. Baleja

Our number · žilina winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

52% The market45%

Us52%

~~Market~~45%

We make Žilina a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · žilina win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ružomberok win	25%	30%	−5
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Žilina win	52%	45%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	59%	63%	−4
Both teams to score	59%	64%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	81%	82%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	37%	42%	−6
Ružomberok or draw	48%	55%	−7
Ružomberok clean sheet	16%	–	–
Žilina clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.0 8.4 7.9 4.9 2.3 1 5.5 10.6 9.5 5.9 2.8 2 3.5 6.3 5.8 3.6 3 2.6 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ružomberok down, Žilina across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,031 Super Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

15 previous meetings, 2.87 goals a meeting; 7 of 15 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ružomberok at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Žilina away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Ružomberok, 1.85 for Žilina. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

15 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.87

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 15

~~Both scored~~7 of 15

~~Last meetings~~ZIL 1–2 RUZ · RUZ 3–3 ZIL · RUZ 1–0 ZIL · ZIL 3–1 RUZ

Form · last six in Super Liga

RUŽOMBEROK

LLLDWL0–5 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–2

ŽILINA

WWWWDW4–3 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 3–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dunajska Streda	9	+23	23
2	Žilina	9	+6	20
3	Spartak Trnava	9	+11	18
4	Slovan Bratislava	9	+11	17
5	Podbrezová	9	−3	14
6	FK Košice	9	+3	13
7	Zemplín Michalovce	10	−5	13
8	Dukla Banská Bystrica	10	−11	10
9	Skalica	10	−8	9
10	Komárno	10	−6	6
11	Ružomberok	9	−10	5
12	AS Trencin	9	−11	5