Komárno v Ružomberok prediction · Super Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Komárno 0–1 Ružomberok KOMÁRNO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Komárno win~~41%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.722

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.774

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Komárno win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Komárno was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–31
1′KICK-OFF Komárno v Ružomberok
20′20′: V. Hranos on the scoresheet for Ružomberok, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 15–23–62
20′We said Komárno at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–23–62
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Komárno 0–1 Ružomberok · V. Hranos
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Komárno win: 41% at kick-off, 15% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Ružomberok win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Komárno win 15%)
23′We said Komárno at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–62
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 13–23–64
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Komárno win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
37′20′: V. Hranos on the scoresheet for Ružomberok, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 11–23–65
37′We said Komárno at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–23–65
37′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 11–23–65
37′SUBSTITUTION · 37' Komárno · On: M. Simko · Off: R. Pillar
44′We said Komárno at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–67
45′HALF-TIME Komárno 0–1 Ružomberok
45′SECOND HALF Komárno 0–1 Ružomberok
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Komárno · On: G. Ganbayar · Off: D. Zak Corrected
53′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Komárno · On: G. Ganbayar · Off: A. Gavrylenko Corrected
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Komárno · On: G. Ganbayar · Off: A. Gavrylenko
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Komárno · On: C. Bayemi · Off: J. Sylvestr
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' M. Bacik · Ružomberok
63′We said Komárno at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Komárno · On: J. Palan · Off: S. Smehyl
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Komárno · On: Matheus Leoni · Off: A. Masaryk
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Komárno win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Ružomberok · On: M. Koubek · Off: J. Hladik
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Ružomberok · On: P. Jevos · Off: A. Mojzis
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Ružomberok · On: M. Boda · Off: A. Tucny
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Ružomberok · On: M. Kelemen · Off: M. Bacik
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Matheus Leoni · Komárno
FTFULL TIME Komárno 0–1 Ružomberok
FTKomárno 0–1 Ružomberok · Komárno win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Komárno are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Komárno 41%, draw 28%, Ružomberok 31%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Komárno v RužomberokBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Komárno win41%

Draw28%

Ružomberok win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 11

RefereeF. Glova

Line-ups

Komárno

Ružomberok

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Komárno

Ružomberok

7Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · the Slovak Super Liga

Last match: 14 Oct · the Slovak Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Komárno	10	−6	6
11	Ružomberok	10	−10	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Komárno

Formation not confirmed

32 B. Pindroch

37 A. Krcik

21 R. Pillar

5 D. Spiriak

8 S. Smehyl

10 K. Domonkos

44 A. Gavrylenko

77 A. Masaryk

12 D. Zak

23 J. Bernat

9 J. Sylvestr

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · F. Dlubac

20 · Matheus Leoni

3 · M. Simko

18 · J. Palan

7 · G. Ganbayar

22 · N. Tamas

17 · C. Bayemi

55 · O. Akinwande

28 · E. Oppong

Ružomberok

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Krajcirik

31 D. Kostka

16 D. Kostl

5 T. Marusin

2 A. Mojzis

28 A. Selecky

17 A. Tucny

4 O. Luteran

15 M. Bacik

14 J. Hladik

19 V. Hranos

Coach · Jaroslav Kostl

Substitutes

34 · D. Huska

25 · D. Grgic

20 · M. Chobot

22 · T. Buchvaldek

30 · M. Boda

9 · M. Koubek

26 · M. Kelemen

24 · P. Jevos

6 · T. Mirko

Our number · komárno winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market45%

Us41%

~~Market~~45%

We make Komárno a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Komárno v Ružomberok~~1.30 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D4 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 6~~10 v 11

~~The market · Komárno win~~45% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Komárno win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Komárno win	41%	45%	−4
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Ružomberok win	31%	29%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	43%	55%	−12
Both teams to score	48%	58%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	69%	77%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	22%	34%	−12
Komárno or draw	69%	71%	−2
Komárno clean sheet	34%	–	–
Ružomberok clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.5 9.7 5.5 2.0 1 11.5 13.1 7.0 2.6 2 7.7 8.3 4.5 3 3.4 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Komárno down, Ružomberok across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,033 Super Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.5% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.44 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Komárno at home: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ružomberok away: 0.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Komárno, 1.10 for Ružomberok. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.44

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~RUZ 2–1 KOM · KOM 3–0 RUZ · KOM 1–1 RUZ · RUZ 0–1 KOM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 Aug

KOMÁRNO

LDDDLD1–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

RUŽOMBEROK

LLDWLD0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dunajska Streda	9	+23	23
2	Spartak Trnava	10	+13	21
3	Žilina	10	+6	21
4	Slovan Bratislava	9	+11	17
5	Podbrezová	10	−5	14
6	FK Košice	9	+3	13
7	Zemplín Michalovce	10	−5	13
8	Dukla Banská Bystrica	10	−11	10
9	Skalica	10	−8	9
10	Komárno	10	−6	6
11	Ružomberok	10	−10	6
12	AS Trencin	9	−11	5