Komárno v AS Trencin prediction · Super Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KomárnoDrawAS Trencin

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Komárno 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Komárno are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Komárno 40%, draw 27%, AS Trencin 33%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Komárno v AS TrencinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Komárno win40%

Draw27%

AS Trencin win33%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 12

RefereeM. Ruc

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Komárno

AS Trencin

4Days since last match8

Last match: 21 Oct · the Slovak Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · the Slovak Super Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	AS Trencin	10	−9	8
12	Komárno	11	−7	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · komárno winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market49%

Us40%

~~Market~~49%

We make Komárno a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Komárno v AS Trencin~~1.35 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D4 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 8~~12 v 11

~~The market · Komárno win~~49% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Komárno win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Komárno win	40%	49%	−9
Draw	27%	25%	+2
AS Trencin win	33%	26%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	46%	61%	−15
Both teams to score	51%	63%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	72%	81%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	25%	41%	−16
Komárno or draw	67%	74%	−7
Komárno clean sheet	31%	–	–
AS Trencin clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.4 9.2 5.6 2.2 1 10.5 12.7 7.4 2.9 2 7.2 8.4 5.0 3 3.3 3.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Komárno down, AS Trencin across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,043 Super Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.2% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Komárno at home: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). AS Trencin away: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Komárno, 1.18 for AS Trencin. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~AST 1–1 KOM · AST 1–2 KOM · KOM 0–1 AST · AST 0–1 KOM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug

KOMÁRNO

DDDLDL2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1

AS TRENCIN

WLLLLW2–1 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dunajska Streda	11	+29	29
2	Spartak Trnava	12	+10	22
3	Slovan Bratislava	11	+14	21
4	Žilina	11	+5	21
5	Podbrezová	12	−3	17
6	FK Košice	10	+3	14
7	Zemplín Michalovce	12	−8	14
8	Dukla Banská Bystrica	12	−10	14
9	Skalica	12	−10	10
10	Ružomberok	12	−14	9
11	AS Trencin	10	−9	8
12	Komárno	11	−7	6