FK Košice v Žilina prediction · Super Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FK KošiceDrawŽilina

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Žilina 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Žilina are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FK Košice 34%, draw 22%, Žilina 44%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on FK Košice v ŽilinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

FK Košice win34%

Draw22%

Žilina win44%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 12

RefereeI. Kruzliak

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FK Košice

Žilina

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Slovak Super Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Žilina	11	+5	21
5	FK Košice	10	+3	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · žilina winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

44% The market26%

Us44%

~~Market~~26%

We make Žilina a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 18 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FK Košice v Žilina~~1.73 – 1.97

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 21~~5 v 3

~~The market · Žilina win~~26% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Žilina win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 26% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FK Košice win	34%	51%	−17
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Žilina win	44%	26%	+18
Over 2.5 goals	71%	70%	+1
Both teams to score	70%	69%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	88%	86%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	50%	50%	0
FK Košice or draw	56%	74%	−18
FK Košice clean sheet	14%	–	–
Žilina clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.5%

0123450 2.7 4.9 4.8 3.2 1 4.3 8.5 8.2 5.4 2.7 2 3.8 7.2 7.0 4.6 2.3 3 2.2 4.1 4.0 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FK Košice down, Žilina across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,039 Super Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FK Košice at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Žilina away: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for FK Košice, 1.97 for Žilina. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ZIL 4–4 FKK · ZIL 3–1 FKK · FKK 2–2 ZIL · ZIL 4–1 FKK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug

FK KOŠICE

DWLWDD2–2 · 3–0 · 2–5 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

ŽILINA

WWDWDL3–1 · 3–1 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dunajska Streda	10	+24	26
2	Spartak Trnava	11	+10	21
3	Žilina	11	+5	21
4	Slovan Bratislava	10	+14	20
5	FK Košice	10	+3	14
6	Zemplín Michalovce	11	−5	14
7	Podbrezová	11	−6	14
8	Dukla Banská Bystrica	11	−10	13
9	Ružomberok	11	−9	9
10	Skalica	11	−10	9
11	AS Trencin	10	−9	8
12	Komárno	11	−7	6