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Dunajska Streda v Ružomberok

Dunajska Streda

5–0Full time

Ružomberok

Super Liga · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:46

Dunajska Streda 5–0 Ružomberok DUNAJSKA STREDA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dunajska Streda win~~68%

~~The market said~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.151

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.121

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dunajska Streda win at 68%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Dunajska Streda 68% before kick-off, 68% now. 0–0 · 68–19–13
1′KICK-OFF Dunajska Streda v Ružomberok
5′G. Gagua scores for Dunajska Streda on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 87–9–4
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Dunajska Streda 1–0 Ružomberok · G. Gagua
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Dunajska Streda win: 68% at kick-off, 87% now
6′We said Dunajska Streda at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–9–4
16′15′: K. Nemanic on the scoresheet for Dunajska Streda. 1–0 · 87–10–3
16′We said Dunajska Streda at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–1
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Dunajska Streda 2–0 Ružomberok · K. Nemanic
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Dunajska Streda win: 68% at kick-off, 97% now
23′Dunajska Streda ahead on 23′ through M. Trusa. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Dunajska Streda 3–0 Ružomberok · M. Trusa
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Dunajska Streda win: 68% at kick-off, 99% now
30′We said Dunajska Streda at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
30′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
34′33′: A. Ramadan on the scoresheet for Dunajska Streda. 3–0 · 100–0–0
34′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
34′⚽ GOAL · 33' Dunajska Streda 4–0 Ružomberok · A. Ramadan
45′HALF-TIME Dunajska Streda 4–0 Ružomberok
45′SECOND HALF Dunajska Streda 4–0 Ružomberok
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dunajska Streda · On: A. Sylla · Off: P. Owusu
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dunajska Streda · On: F. Diongue · Off: J. Bationo
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ružomberok · On: D. Grgic · Off: J. Hladik
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ružomberok · On: S. Lavrincik · Off: A. Tucny
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Dunajska Streda · On: P. Safranko · Off: M. Trusa
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Dunajska Streda · On: M. Jencus · Off: S. Ouro
70′70′: Z. Trontelj on the scoresheet for Dunajska Streda, making it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Dunajska Streda 5–0 Ružomberok · Z. Trontelj
71′5 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Ružomberok · On: P. Jevos · Off: M. Bacik
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Ružomberok · On: M. Koubek · Off: V. Hranos
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Dunajska Streda · On: U. Kabic · Off: G. Gagua
FTFULL TIME Dunajska Streda 5–0 Ružomberok
FTDunajska Streda 5–0 Ružomberok · Dunajska Streda win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dunajska Streda are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dunajska Streda 68%, draw 19%, Ružomberok 13%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Dunajska Streda v RužomberokBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Dunajska Streda win68%

Draw19%

Ružomberok win13%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 12

RefereeP. Kralovic

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dunajska Streda

Ružomberok

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Slovak Super Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · the Slovak Super Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dunajska streda winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

68% The market72%

Us68%

~~Market~~72%

We make Dunajska Streda a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dunajska Streda v Ružomberok~~2.17 – 0.79

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 26 v 9~~1 v 9

~~The market · Dunajska Streda win~~72% · ours 68%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dunajska Streda win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dunajska Streda win	68%	72%	−4
Draw	19%	17%	+2
Ružomberok win	13%	12%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	57%	70%	−13
Both teams to score	48%	59%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	79%	86%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	34%	51%	−17
Dunajska Streda or draw	87%	88%	−1
Dunajska Streda clean sheet	46%	–	–
Ružomberok clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.1%

0123450 5.5 4.1 1 11.2 9.0 3.5 2 12.1 9.4 3.7 3 8.7 6.8 2.7 4 4.8 3.7 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Dunajska Streda down, Ružomberok across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,039 Super Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dunajska Streda at home: 2.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ružomberok away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.17 goals for Dunajska Streda, 0.79 for Ružomberok. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RUZ 1–1 DUN · RUZ 0–1 DUN · DUN 2–0 RUZ · DUN 3–0 RUZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 29 Aug

DUNAJSKA STREDA

WWWDWW6–1 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 3–2

RUŽOMBEROK

LDWLDW1–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dunajska Streda	10	+24	26
2	Spartak Trnava	11	+10	21
3	Žilina	11	+5	21
4	Slovan Bratislava	10	+14	20
5	FK Košice	10	+3	14
6	Zemplín Michalovce	11	−5	14
7	Podbrezová	11	−6	14
8	Dukla Banská Bystrica	11	−10	13
9	Ružomberok	11	−9	9
10	Skalica	11	−10	9
11	AS Trencin	10	−9	8
12	Komárno	11	−7	6