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Dukla Banská Bystrica v Podbrezová

Dukla Banská Bystrica
1–0Full time
Podbrezová

Super Liga · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17
Dukla Banská Bystrica 1–0 Podbrezová PODBREZOVÁ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Podbrezová win46%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.741
The market’s Brier score0.791

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Podbrezová win at 46%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Podbrezová 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 31–23–46
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Dukla Banská Bystrica v Podbrezová
  4. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' B. Mrvaljevic · Podbrezová
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Dukla Banská Bystrica 0–0 Podbrezová
  6. 45′SECOND HALF Dukla Banská Bystrica 0–0 Podbrezová
  7. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Podbrezová · On: F. Momoh · Off: K. Miljanic
  8. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Podbrezová · On: M. Khyminets · Off: B. Mrvaljevic
  9. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Podbrezová win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
  10. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Podbrezová win 35%)
  11. 55′We said Podbrezová at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 25–40–34
  12. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.3 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 25–40–34
  13. 55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' S. Stefanik · Podbrezová
  14. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Podbrezová · On: R. Paraj · Off: O. Deml
  15. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' R. Kejval · Podbrezová
  16. 65′We said Podbrezová at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 22–49–29
  17. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Podbrezová win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
  18. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Dukla Banská Bystrica · On: A. Hanes · Off: E. Arevalo
  19. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Dukla Banská Bystrica · On: T. Slebodnik · Off: J. Povazanec
  20. 72′We said Podbrezová at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 19–57–24
  21. 73′We said Podbrezová at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 0–1 · 2–16–82
  22. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Dukla Banská Bystrica 0–1 Podbrezová
  23. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Podbrezová win: 46% at kick-off, 82% now
  24. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Podbrezová win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 16%)
  25. 74′F. Momoh scores for Podbrezová on 74′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 2–15–83
  26. 76′GOAL DISALLOWED · 74' F. Momoh · Podbrezová
  27. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Podbrezová win: 46% at kick-off, 20% now
  28. 76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Podbrezová win 20%)
  29. 77′We said Podbrezová at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 15–66–19
  30. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Dukla Banská Bystrica · On: Joao Miranda · Off: L. Willweber
  31. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Podbrezová · On: L. Silagadze · Off: S. Stefanik
  32. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Podbrezová win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
  33. 82′We said Podbrezová at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 10–76–13
  34. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Dukla Banská Bystrica · On: K. Vallo · Off: R. Polievka
  35. 86′We said Podbrezová at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 7–84–9
  36. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Dukla Banská Bystrica · On: V. Toth · Off: M. Gjorgievski
  37. 89′We said Podbrezová at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 1–0 · 93–6–0
  38. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Podbrezová · On: S. Tijani · Off: V. Chyla
  39. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Dukla Banská Bystrica 1–0 Podbrezová
  40. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Podbrezová win: 46% at kick-off, under 1% now
  41. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Dukla Banská Bystrica win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 6%)
  42. 90′M. Bakala scores for Dukla Banská Bystrica on 90′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 94–5–0
  43. 95′1–0 at the end. Our 46% on Podbrezová misses, and the record keeps it. 1–0 · 100–0–0
  44. FTFULL TIME Dukla Banská Bystrica 1–0 Podbrezová
  45. FTDukla Banská Bystrica 1–0 Podbrezová · Podbrezová win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Podbrezová are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dukla Banská Bystrica 31%, draw 23%, Podbrezová 46%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Dukla Banská Bystrica v PodbrezováBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dukla Banská Bystrica win31%
Draw23%
Podbrezová win46%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 11

RefereeA. Fusek

Line-ups

Dukla Banská Bystrica

Podbrezová

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dukla Banská Bystrica

Podbrezová

4Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · the Slovak Cup

Last match: 11 Oct · the Slovak Super Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Podbrezová10−514
8Dukla Banská Bystrica10−1110

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dukla Banská Bystrica

Formation not confirmed

31 L. Hrosso

42 Maik

23 M. Bakala

41 L. Willweber

13 N. Sikula

7 J. Povazanec

6 D. Richtarech

29 E. Arevalo

28 M. Gjorgievski

17 R. Polievka

57 M. Duris

Coach · Daniel Valach

Substitutes

1 · J. Trefil

11 · K. Vallo

3 · A. Adewale

14 · Joao Miranda

24 · V. Toth

9 · T. Slebodnik

73 · A. Hanes

25 · E. Okechukwu

Podbrezová

Formation not confirmed

70 L. Domanisky

5 R. Lampreht

37 J. Luka

25 R. Kejval

77 P. Kovacik

26 S. Stefanik

13 V. Chyla

8 O. Deml

11 B. Mrvaljevic

9 M. Chrien

27 K. Miljanic

Coach · Stefan Markulik

Substitutes

41 · I. Rehak

19 · S. Saidy

15 · R. Paraj

66 · M. Rusnak

6 · S. Tijani

14 · M. Khyminets

7 · L. Silagadze

22 · F. Momoh

17 · A. Amoafo

Our number · podbrezová winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
46% The market47%
Us46%
Market47%

We make Podbrezová a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Dukla Banská Bystrica v Podbrezová1.47 – 1.83
Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 AugW3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 10 v 148 v 5
The market · Podbrezová win47% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 12 OCT 04:0518 OCT 13:50
Our probability · Podbrezová win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Dukla Banská Bystrica win31%28%+3
Draw23%25%−2
Podbrezová win46%47%−1
Over 2.5 goals64%59%+5
Both teams to score64%61%+3
Over 1.5 goals84%80%+4
Over 3.5 goals42%38%+4
Dukla Banská Bystrica or draw54%53%+1
Dukla Banská Bystrica clean sheet17%––
Podbrezová clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%
0123450 4.1 6.7 6.2 3.8 1 5.4 10.0 8.9 5.4 2.5 2 4.0 7.2 6.4 3.9 3 3.5 3.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Dukla Banská Bystrica down, Podbrezová across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.10
Over 2.56 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsDUK 0–2 POD · POD 1–1 DUK · POD 2–2 DUK · DUK 1–4 POD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 Aug

DUKLA BANSKÁ BYSTRICA

WDLWLW1–0 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

PODBREZOVÁ

LDLDWL0–5 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Dunajska Streda9+2323
2Spartak Trnava11+1021
3Žilina10+621
4Slovan Bratislava10+1420
5Podbrezová10−514
6FK Košice9+313
7Zemplín Michalovce10−513
8Dukla Banská Bystrica10−1110
9Ružomberok11−99
10Skalica11−109
11AS Trencin10−98
12Komárno11−76

The competition's standings before kick-off.