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AS Trencin v Dukla Banská Bystrica

AS Trencin

0–1Full time

Dukla Banská Bystrica

Super Liga · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

AS Trencin 0–1 Dukla Banská Bystrica AS TRENCIN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AS Trencin win~~46%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.757

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.815

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AS Trencin win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: AS Trencin was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–23–30
1′KICK-OFF AS Trencin v Dukla Banská Bystrica
11′We said AS Trencin at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–22–55
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' AS Trencin 0–1 Dukla Banská Bystrica
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' AS Trencin win: 46% at kick-off, 23% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Dukla Banská Bystrica win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was AS Trencin win 23%)
12′Dukla Banská Bystrica ahead on 11′ through M. Gjorgievski. 0–1. 0–1 · 22–22–55
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' AS Trencin 0–1 Dukla Banská Bystrica · M. Gjorgievski (assist N. Kubala)
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' D. Richtarech · Dukla Banská Bystrica
26′We said AS Trencin at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–57
33′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 17–24–59
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' AS Trencin win: 46% at kick-off, 15% now
45′SECOND HALF AS Trencin 0–1 Dukla Banská Bystrica
46′We said AS Trencin at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–24–62
46′HALF-TIME AS Trencin 0–1 Dukla Banská Bystrica
48′🟥 RED CARD · 48' Dukla Banská Bystrica
50′🟥 RED CARD · 49' N. Kubala · Dukla Banská Bystrica
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Dukla Banská Bystrica · On: K. Vallo · Off: D. Richtarech
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' M. Duris · Dukla Banská Bystrica
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' AS Trencin · On: T. Hajovsky · Off: M. Poom
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' AS Trencin · On: M. Boye · Off: F. Kasana
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' AS Trencin · On: N. Jovanovic · Off: J. Mulder
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Dukla Banská Bystrica · On: E. Okechukwu · Off: E. Arevalo
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Dukla Banská Bystrica · On: V. Toth · Off: M. Duris
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' E. Okechukwu · Dukla Banská Bystrica
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' AS Trencin · On: D. Jepihhin · Off: D. Kam
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' AS Trencin · On: C. Ansah · Off: P. Gonzalez
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Dukla Banská Bystrica · On: A. Hanes · Off: J. Povazanec
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Dukla Banská Bystrica · On: A. Sivicek · Off: M. Gjorgievski
FTFULL TIME AS Trencin 0–1 Dukla Banská Bystrica
FTAS Trencin 0–1 Dukla Banská Bystrica · AS Trencin win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

AS Trencin win46%

Draw24%

Dukla Banská Bystrica win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

AS Trencin

4-1-4-1

1 A. Katic

14 R. Sanusi

33 R. Krizan

29 L. Bessile

13 J. Mulder

18 M. Poom

10 D. Kam

93 P. Gonzalez

21 L. Mikulaj

7 Eynel Soares

5 F. Kasana

Coach · Marek Danovsky

Substitutes

30 · M. Slavicek

2 · N. Jovanovic

25 · L. Skovajsa

95 · P. Diouf

8 · T. Hajovsky

16 · C. Ansah

22 · D. Jepihhin

99 · M. Boye

27 · F. Slovak

Dukla Banská Bystrica

4-2-3-1

31 L. Hrosso

42 Maik

23 M. Bakala

41 L. Willweber

13 N. Sikula

7 J. Povazanec

6 D. Richtarech

29 E. Arevalo

28 M. Gjorgievski

27 N. Kubala

57 M. Duris

Coach · Daniel Valach

Substitutes

1 · J. Trefil

11 · K. Vallo

14 · Joao Miranda

24 · V. Toth

9 · T. Slebodnik

73 · A. Hanes

15 · A. Sivicek

16 · S. Kostial

25 · E. Okechukwu

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

AS Trencin

4-1-4-1

1 A. Katic

14 R. Sanusi

33 R. Krizan

29 L. Bessile

13 J. Mulder

18 M. Poom

10 D. Kam

93 P. Gonzalez

21 L. Mikulaj

7 Eynel Soares

5 F. Kasana

Coach · Marek Danovsky

Substitutes

30 · M. Slavicek

2 · N. Jovanovic

25 · L. Skovajsa

95 · P. Diouf

8 · T. Hajovsky

16 · C. Ansah

22 · D. Jepihhin

99 · M. Boye

27 · F. Slovak

Dukla Banská Bystrica

4-2-3-1

31 L. Hrosso

42 Maik

23 M. Bakala

41 L. Willweber

13 N. Sikula

7 J. Povazanec

6 D. Richtarech

29 E. Arevalo

28 M. Gjorgievski

27 N. Kubala

57 M. Duris

Coach · Daniel Valach

Substitutes

1 · J. Trefil

11 · K. Vallo

14 · Joao Miranda

24 · V. Toth

9 · T. Slebodnik

73 · A. Hanes

15 · A. Sivicek

16 · S. Kostial

25 · E. Okechukwu

Our number · as trencin winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

46% The market47%

Us46%

~~Market~~47%

We make AS Trencin a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AS Trencin win	46%	47%	−1
Draw	24%	25%	−2
Dukla Banská Bystrica win	30%	27%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	60%	60%	0
Both teams to score	61%	62%	0
Over 1.5 goals	82%	80%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	38%	40%	−1
AS Trencin or draw	70%	73%	−3
AS Trencin clean sheet	26%	–	–
Dukla Banská Bystrica clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.8 5.9 4.2 1 7.5 10.6 7.1 3.3 2 6.7 9.0 6.2 2.9 3 3.9 5.3 3.6 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AS Trencin down, Dukla Banská Bystrica across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,027 Super Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.3% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.60 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AS Trencin at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Dukla Banská Bystrica away: 0.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for AS Trencin, 1.38 for Dukla Banská Bystrica. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AST 2–2 DUK · DUK 2–3 AST · DUK 6–1 AST · AST 2–2 DUK

Form · last six in Super Liga

AS TRENCIN

LLWLLL1–2 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 1–2

DUKLA BANSKÁ BYSTRICA

LWDLWL3–4 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dunajska Streda	8	+20	20
2	Žilina	9	+6	20
3	Spartak Trnava	9	+11	18
4	Slovan Bratislava	8	+11	16
5	Podbrezová	9	−3	14
6	Zemplín Michalovce	9	−2	13
7	FK Košice	8	+3	12
8	Skalica	9	−8	8
9	Dukla Banská Bystrica	9	−12	7
10	Komárno	9	−6	5
11	AS Trencin	8	−10	5
12	Ružomberok	9	−10	5