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Zlaté Moravce v Komárno

Zlaté Moravce
0–0After penalties
Komárno

Cup · WED 21 OCT

After 90 minutesGraded 21 Oct 19:01
Zlaté Moravce 0–0 Komárno KOMÁRNO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Komárno win44%
The market said53%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.803
The market’s Brier score0.880

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 0–0, the score after 90 minutes. Zlaté Moravce won 6–5 on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Komárno win at 44%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Komárno was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 29–28–44
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Zlaté Moravce v Komárno
  4. 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Komárno win 37%)
  5. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Komárno win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Zlaté Moravce 0–0 Komárno
  7. 45′SECOND HALF Zlaté Moravce 0–0 Komárno
  8. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Komárno · On: J. Sylvestr · Off: L. Leginus
  9. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Komárno · On: A. Lacza · Off: M. Misovic
  10. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Zlaté Moravce · On: M. Konopka · Off: S. Bagin
  11. 51′We said Komárno at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 23–44–32
  12. 55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 22–47–31
  13. 58′We said Komárno at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 21–49–29
  14. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Komárno · On: O. Akinwande · Off: D. Ozvolda
  15. 67′We said Komárno at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 18–58–24
  16. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Komárno win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
  17. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Zlaté Moravce · On: S. Sonko · Off: A. Ousaye
  18. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Zlaté Moravce · On: D. Bugar · Off: O. Lachowicz
  19. 74′We said Komárno at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 14–67–19
  20. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Komárno · On: E. Oppong · Off: G. Ganbayar
  21. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Zlaté Moravce
  22. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Zlaté Moravce · On: S. Mato · Off: D. Adamkovic
  23. 79′We said Komárno at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 11–75–14
  24. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Zlaté Moravce · On: S. Kucharik · Off: M. Majercik
  25. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Komárno win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
  26. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Komárno
  27. 84′We said Komárno at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 6–85–8
  28. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Komárno
  29. 90′We said Komárno at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–92–4
  30. 90′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 51%. 0–0 · 21–51–28
  31. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Komárno win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
  32. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Komárno · On: D. Spiriak · Off: E. Oppong
  33. 120′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. The shoot-out decides who goes through - our model does not price it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
  34. FTFULL TIME Zlaté Moravce 0–0 Komárno
  35. FTZlaté Moravce 0–0 Komárno after 90 minutes, as graded · Komárno win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Komárno are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zlaté Moravce 29%, draw 27%, Komárno 44%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Zlaté Moravce v KomárnoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Zlaté Moravce win29%
Draw27%
Komárno win44%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 16:30

RoundRound of 32

Line-ups

Zlaté Moravce

Komárno

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zlaté Moravce

Komárno

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. liga

Last match: 17 Oct · the Slovak Super Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Zlaté Moravce

Formation not confirmed

31 M. Tresl

3 R. Buhaj

5 M. Majercik

8 O. Lachowicz

9 A. Pudil

17 D. Kutik

21 D. Adamkovic

25 A. Ousaye

26 S. Bagin

28 M. Bukata

89 M. Halo

Coach · Peter Gazi

Substitutes

41 · P. Vasil

10 · S. Kucharik

11 · D. Bugar

13 · A. Radenkovic

18 · S. Homola

20 · S. Sonko

22 · M. Konopka

77 · L. Bortoli

99 · S. Mato

Komárno

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Dlubac

15 N. Tamas

4 M. I. Vass

3 M. Simko

23 J. Palan

6 D. Ozvolda

14 A. Havrylenko

7 G. Ganbayar

17 C. Bayemi

19 L. Leginus

16 M. Misovic

Coach · –

Substitutes

26 · E. Gyurakovics

2 · Matheus Leoni

5 · D. Spiriak

8 · J. Sylvestr

12 · A. Lacza

18 · E. Oppong

80 · O. Akinwande

98 · Z. Mitring

Our number · komárno winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
44% The market53%
Us44%
Market53%

We make Komárno a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Zlaté Moravce v Komárno1.10 – 1.41
Form · Cup this season · since 19 AugW1 D1 L0 · W2 D0 L0
The market · Komárno win53% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 16:16
Our probability · Komárno win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Zlaté Moravce win29%21%+8
Draw27%26%+1
Komárno win44%53%−9
Over 2.5 goals46%51%−5
Both teams to score51%53%−2
Over 1.5 goals72%73%−1
Over 3.5 goals25%32%−7
Zlaté Moravce or draw56%47%+9
Zlaté Moravce clean sheet24%––
Komárno clean sheet33%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%
0123450 8.5 11.0 8.1 3.8 1 8.5 13.0 8.9 4.2 2 4.9 6.9 4.9 2.3 3 2.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Zlaté Moravce down, Komárno across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsKOM 2–0 ZLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 19 Aug

ZLATÉ MORAVCE

WD2–0 · 1–1

KOMÁRNO

WW5–0 · 2–0